ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $57.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -2.43 to the broader market. ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI Crude Oil Index. public since 2008-11-25.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $6.05
- Expected Move
- 26.9%
- Implied High
- $7.68
- Implied Low
- $4.42
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) has an expected move of 26.90%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $4.42 to $7.68 from the current $6.05. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SCO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil pricing an expected move of 26.90% from $6.05, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SCO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $6.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 89.7% | 12.4% | $6.80 | $5.30 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 91.6% | 17.9% | $7.14 | $4.96 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 93.2% | 22.4% | $7.40 | $4.70 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 94.7% | 26.2% | $7.64 | $4.46 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 92.4% | 28.2% | $7.76 | $4.34 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 94.4% | 32.0% | $7.99 | $4.11 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 90.7% | 37.7% | $8.33 | $3.77 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 85.8% | 55.7% | $9.42 | $2.68 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 81.0% | 66.4% | $10.06 | $2.04 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 116.8% | 151.7% | $15.23 | $-3.13 |
Frequently asked SCO expected move questions
- What is the current SCO expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) has an expected move of 26.90% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $4.42 to $7.68 from the current $6.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SCO expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SCO expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.