What is the SCJ 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with SCJ at $106.28 and ATM IV at 50.6%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$15.42, or about $90.86 to $121.70. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.

What does SCJ risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future SCJ price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does SCJ ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF (SCJ) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF (SCJ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $188.4M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.83 to the broader market. The iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization Japanese equities. public since 2007-12-27.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $106.28
ATM IV: 50.6%
IV Rank: 74.8%
IV Percentile: 98.0%
HV 20-Day: 21.5%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.104

As of May 29, 2026, iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF (SCJ) at $106.28 has an ATM IV of 50.6%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$15.42. IV rank is 74.8% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 98.0%. The 25-delta skew is -0.104: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How SCJ probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 50.6% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the SCJ probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 50.6% and spot at $106.28, the 1σ band is approximately ±17.5% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 21.5% runs 29.1 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

SCJ risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. SCJ's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.104) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the SCJ distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With SCJ IV rank at 74.8%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked SCJ probability analysis questions

What is the SCJ 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with SCJ at $106.28 and ATM IV at 50.6%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$15.42, or about $90.86 to $121.70. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.
What does SCJ risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future SCJ price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does SCJ ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.