Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $87.24B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.91 to the broader market. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is based on the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (Index). public since 2003-05-01.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $201.76
- Expected Move
- 4.4%
- Implied High
- $210.61
- Implied Low
- $192.91
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has an expected move of 4.39%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $192.91 to $210.61 from the current $201.76. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
RSP Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF pricing an expected move of 4.39% from $201.76, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for RSP derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $201.76 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 13.1% | 1.8% | $205.42 | $198.10 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 13.2% | 2.6% | $206.98 | $196.54 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 13.7% | 3.3% | $208.39 | $195.13 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 15.0% | 4.2% | $210.14 | $193.38 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 15.8% | 4.8% | $211.49 | $192.03 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 14.9% | 5.1% | $211.96 | $191.56 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 16.3% | 6.8% | $215.42 | $188.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 16.4% | 9.6% | $221.20 | $182.32 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 17.5% | 13.5% | $228.98 | $174.54 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 17.3% | 14.2% | $230.36 | $173.16 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 18.9% | 24.6% | $251.30 | $152.22 |
Frequently asked RSP expected move questions
- What is the current RSP expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has an expected move of 4.39% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $192.91 to $210.61 from the current $201.76. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the RSP expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is RSP expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.