What is the RODM 30-day expected price range?

As of Aug 28, 2026, with RODM at $42.07 and ATM IV at 23.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.87, or about $39.20 to $44.94. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does RODM risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future RODM price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does RODM ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF (RODM) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF (RODM) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $1.55B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.65 to the broader market. The Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF, identified by its ticker symbol RODM, endeavors to replicate the comprehensive investment performance of a particular benchmark index. public since 2015-02-27.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $42.07
ATM IV: 23.8%
IV Rank: 20.7%
IV Percentile: 45.6%
HV 20-Day: 11.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.001

As of Aug 28, 2026, Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF (RODM) at $42.07 has an ATM IV of 23.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.87. IV rank is 20.7% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 45.6%. The 25-delta skew is -0.001: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How RODM probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 23.8% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the RODM probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 23.8% and spot at $42.07, the 1σ band is approximately ±8.2% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 11.8% runs 12.0 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

RODM risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the RODM distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With RODM IV rank at 20.7%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked RODM probability analysis questions

What is the RODM 30-day expected price range?: As of Aug 28, 2026, with RODM at $42.07 and ATM IV at 23.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.87, or about $39.20 to $44.94. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does RODM risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future RODM price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does RODM ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.