QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $15.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.07 to the broader market. The fund is an actively-managed ETF that seeks to achieve its investment objective by utilizing an investment strategy enhanced by the use of artificial intelligence. public since 2019-05-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $68.63
- Expected Move
- 4.2%
- Implied High
- $71.54
- Implied Low
- $65.72
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT) has an expected move of 4.24%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $65.72 to $71.54 from the current $68.63. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
QRFT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF pricing an expected move of 4.24% from $68.63, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for QRFT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $68.63 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 14.8% | 4.5% | $71.73 | $65.53 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 15.6% | 6.5% | $73.08 | $64.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 16.8% | 9.9% | $75.40 | $61.86 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 17.8% | 13.7% | $78.05 | $59.21 |
Frequently asked QRFT expected move questions
- What is the current QRFT expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap ETF (QRFT) has an expected move of 4.24% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $65.72 to $71.54 from the current $68.63. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the QRFT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is QRFT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.