Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $510.23B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.23 to the broader market. Managed by Invesco, the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 functions as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that commenced operations on March 10, 1999. public since 1999-03-10.
Snapshot as of Aug 21, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $713.91
- Expected Move
- 5.5%
- Implied High
- $753.14
- Implied Low
- $674.68
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Aug 21, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 5.49%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $674.68 to $753.14 from the current $713.91. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
QQQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 pricing an expected move of 5.49% from $713.91, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the QQQ implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.49%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $674.68 to $753.14. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
QQQ expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. QQQ term-structure is in contango (slope 0.002), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing QQQ structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. QQQ put/call volume ratio currently at 0.98 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for QQQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $713.91 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 3 | 10.1% | 0.9% | $720.45 | $707.37 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 4 | 12.0% | 1.3% | $722.88 | $704.94 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 5 | 14.4% | 1.7% | $725.94 | $701.88 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 6 | 16.0% | 2.1% | $728.56 | $699.26 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 7 | 17.1% | 2.4% | $730.82 | $697.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 10 | 16.2% | 2.7% | $733.05 | $694.77 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 11 | 16.8% | 2.9% | $734.73 | $693.09 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 12 | 17.2% | 3.1% | $736.17 | $691.65 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 13 | 17.6% | 3.3% | $737.62 | $690.20 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 14 | 18.2% | 3.6% | $739.36 | $688.46 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21 | 18.3% | 4.4% | $745.25 | $682.57 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28 | 19.1% | 5.3% | $751.68 | $676.14 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 35 | 19.3% | 6.0% | $756.58 | $671.24 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 40 | 19.3% | 6.4% | $759.52 | $668.30 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 42 | 19.7% | 6.7% | $761.62 | $666.20 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 56 | 20.1% | 7.9% | $770.12 | $657.70 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 70 | 20.7% | 9.1% | $778.63 | $649.19 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 91 | 21.3% | 10.6% | $789.84 | $637.98 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 119 | 21.7% | 12.4% | $802.37 | $625.45 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 132 | 21.8% | 13.1% | $807.50 | $620.32 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 147 | 21.9% | 13.9% | $813.13 | $614.69 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 182 | 22.3% | 15.7% | $826.33 | $601.49 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 210 | 22.9% | 17.4% | $837.92 | $589.90 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 222 | 22.8% | 17.8% | $840.85 | $586.97 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 300 | 24.0% | 21.8% | $869.24 | $558.58 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 313 | 23.9% | 22.1% | $871.91 | $555.91 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 392 | 24.4% | 25.3% | $894.43 | $533.39 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 483 | 24.9% | 28.6% | $918.40 | $509.42 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 518 | 24.7% | 29.4% | $923.98 | $503.84 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 665 | 24.9% | 33.6% | $953.85 | $473.97 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 847 | 25.4% | 38.7% | $990.14 | $437.68 |
QQQ highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $700.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 7.6K | 103.8K | 20.5% | $9.24 | $9.33 |
| CALL | $711.00 | Aug 26, 2026 | 13.1K | 248 | 14.8% | $6.65 | $6.70 |
| PUT | $713.00 | Aug 24, 2026 | 35.5K | 792 | 10.2% | $2.18 | $2.19 |
| PUT | $660.00 | Dec 18, 2026 | 208 | 197.0K | 24.8% | $15.37 | $15.48 |
| PUT | $710.00 | Aug 24, 2026 | 50.6K | 1.8K | 10.8% | $1.22 | $1.24 |
| CALL | $713.00 | Aug 24, 2026 | 44.1K | 1.2K | 10.2% | $3.17 | $3.19 |
| CALL | $713.00 | Aug 24, 2026 | 44.1K | 1.2K | 10.2% | $3.17 | $3.19 |
| CALL | $714.00 | Aug 24, 2026 | 29.6K | 820 | 10.1% | $2.60 | $2.62 |
| PUT | $714.00 | Aug 24, 2026 | 33.4K | 971 | 10.1% | $2.60 | $2.62 |
| CALL | $700.00 | Aug 31, 2026 | 42 | 32.9K | 18.0% | $17.39 | $17.73 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked QQQ expected move questions
- What is the current QQQ expected move?
- As of Aug 21, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 5.49% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $674.68 to $753.14 from the current $713.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the QQQ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is QQQ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.