Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $440.37B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.18 to the broader market. The Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) launched by Invesco on March 10, 1999, which is structured to track the price and yield performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. public since 1999-03-10.
Snapshot as of May 18, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $704.81
- Expected Move
- 6.3%
- Implied High
- $749.09
- Implied Low
- $660.53
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of May 18, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 6.28%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $660.53 to $749.09 from the current $704.81. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
QQQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 pricing an expected move of 6.28% from $704.81, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the QQQ implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.28%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $660.53 to $749.09. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
QQQ expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. QQQ term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.003), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing QQQ structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. QQQ put/call volume ratio currently at 0.99 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for QQQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $704.81 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | 1 | 22.2% | 1.2% | $713.00 | $696.62 |
| May 20, 2026 | 2 | 24.7% | 1.8% | $717.70 | $691.92 |
| May 21, 2026 | 3 | 26.8% | 2.4% | $721.93 | $687.69 |
| May 22, 2026 | 4 | 26.2% | 2.7% | $724.14 | $685.48 |
| May 26, 2026 | 8 | 21.6% | 3.2% | $727.35 | $682.27 |
| May 27, 2026 | 9 | 21.9% | 3.4% | $729.05 | $680.57 |
| May 28, 2026 | 10 | 22.3% | 3.7% | $730.83 | $678.79 |
| May 29, 2026 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.9% | $732.58 | $677.04 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 14 | 21.4% | 4.2% | $734.35 | $675.27 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 18 | 22.2% | 4.9% | $739.56 | $670.06 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 25 | 22.0% | 5.8% | $745.39 | $664.23 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 31 | 21.9% | 6.4% | $749.79 | $659.83 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 39 | 21.6% | 7.1% | $754.57 | $655.05 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 43 | 21.4% | 7.3% | $756.58 | $653.04 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 60 | 21.5% | 8.7% | $766.25 | $643.37 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 74 | 21.9% | 9.9% | $774.31 | $635.31 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 95 | 22.1% | 11.3% | $784.28 | $625.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 123 | 22.5% | 13.1% | $796.87 | $612.75 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 135 | 22.4% | 13.6% | $800.83 | $608.79 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 151 | 22.8% | 14.7% | $808.17 | $601.45 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 214 | 23.3% | 17.8% | $830.55 | $579.07 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 227 | 23.3% | 18.4% | $834.32 | $575.30 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 242 | 23.5% | 19.1% | $839.68 | $569.94 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 305 | 23.7% | 21.7% | $857.50 | $552.12 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 317 | 23.6% | 22.0% | $859.82 | $549.80 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 395 | 24.1% | 25.1% | $881.51 | $528.11 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 487 | 24.3% | 28.1% | $902.64 | $506.98 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 578 | 24.5% | 30.8% | $922.11 | $487.51 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 613 | 24.4% | 31.6% | $927.68 | $481.94 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 760 | 24.6% | 35.5% | $955.00 | $454.62 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 942 | 24.9% | 40.0% | $986.75 | $422.87 |
QQQ highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $704.00 | May 19, 2026 | 72.4K | 199 | 22.5% | $3.75 | $3.78 |
| CALL | $703.00 | May 19, 2026 | 27.6K | 248 | 22.8% | $4.34 | $4.38 |
| CALL | $701.00 | May 19, 2026 | 12.6K | 126 | 23.3% | $5.65 | $5.71 |
| CALL | $704.00 | May 19, 2026 | 72.4K | 199 | 22.5% | $3.75 | $3.78 |
| CALL | $706.00 | May 19, 2026 | 18.7K | 337 | 21.9% | $2.69 | $2.70 |
| CALL | $707.00 | May 19, 2026 | 17.0K | 331 | 21.6% | $2.24 | $2.26 |
| CALL | $705.00 | May 19, 2026 | 46.4K | 964 | 22.2% | $3.20 | $3.23 |
| PUT | $700.00 | May 19, 2026 | 48.1K | 1.7K | 23.5% | $1.56 | $1.58 |
| CALL | $703.00 | May 20, 2026 | 7.5K | 173 | 25.0% | $6.21 | $6.27 |
| CALL | $705.00 | May 19, 2026 | 46.4K | 964 | 22.2% | $3.20 | $3.23 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked QQQ expected move questions
- What is the current QQQ expected move?
- As of May 18, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 6.28% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $660.53 to $749.09 from the current $704.81. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the QQQ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is QQQ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.