Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $485.47B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.23 to the broader market. Managed by Invesco, the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 functions as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that commenced operations on March 10, 1999. public since 1999-03-10.
Snapshot as of Jul 6, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $724.65
- Expected Move
- 6.8%
- Implied High
- $774.25
- Implied Low
- $675.05
- Front DTE
- 32 days
As of Jul 6, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 6.85%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $675.05 to $774.25 from the current $724.65. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
QQQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 pricing an expected move of 6.85% from $724.65, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the QQQ implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.85%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $675.05 to $774.25. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
QQQ expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. QQQ term-structure is in backwardation (slope 0.000), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing QQQ structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. QQQ put/call volume ratio currently at 1.02 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for QQQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $724.65 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | 1 | 20.3% | 1.1% | $732.35 | $716.95 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 2 | 21.1% | 1.6% | $735.97 | $713.33 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 3 | 21.4% | 1.9% | $738.71 | $710.59 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 4 | 22.2% | 2.3% | $741.49 | $707.81 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 7 | 19.5% | 2.7% | $744.22 | $705.08 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 8 | 20.8% | 3.1% | $746.96 | $702.34 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 9 | 21.5% | 3.4% | $749.11 | $700.19 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 10 | 21.9% | 3.6% | $750.92 | $698.38 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 11 | 22.6% | 3.9% | $753.08 | $696.22 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 14 | 21.4% | 4.2% | $755.02 | $694.28 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 18 | 22.9% | 5.1% | $761.50 | $687.80 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 25 | 23.8% | 6.2% | $769.79 | $679.51 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 32 | 23.9% | 7.1% | $775.93 | $673.37 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 39 | 23.9% | 7.8% | $781.26 | $668.04 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 46 | 23.8% | 8.4% | $785.88 | $663.42 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 56 | 23.8% | 9.3% | $792.20 | $657.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 74 | 24.2% | 10.9% | $803.61 | $645.69 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 86 | 24.2% | 11.7% | $809.77 | $639.53 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 102 | 24.5% | 13.0% | $818.50 | $630.80 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 165 | 25.4% | 17.1% | $848.40 | $600.90 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 178 | 25.3% | 17.7% | $852.68 | $596.62 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 193 | 25.5% | 18.5% | $859.02 | $590.28 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 228 | 25.7% | 20.3% | $871.84 | $577.46 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 256 | 26.0% | 21.8% | $882.44 | $566.86 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 268 | 25.8% | 22.1% | $884.85 | $564.45 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 346 | 26.4% | 25.7% | $910.91 | $538.39 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 359 | 26.2% | 26.0% | $912.94 | $536.36 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 438 | 26.4% | 28.9% | $934.22 | $515.08 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 529 | 26.6% | 32.0% | $956.71 | $492.59 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 564 | 26.5% | 32.9% | $963.36 | $485.94 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 711 | 26.7% | 37.3% | $994.69 | $454.61 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 893 | 26.9% | 42.1% | $1029.55 | $419.75 |
QQQ highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $722.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 26.3K | 173 | 21.6% | $2.09 | $2.12 |
| CALL | $736.00 | Jul 31, 2026 | 28.2K | 218 | 22.7% | $13.10 | $13.18 |
| PUT | $723.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 31.4K | 341 | 21.1% | $2.41 | $2.44 |
| PUT | $721.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 14.2K | 215 | 22.0% | $1.80 | $1.83 |
| CALL | $747.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 18.8K | 336 | 20.9% | $0.01 | $0.02 |
| PUT | $725.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 22.3K | 417 | 20.3% | $3.23 | $3.26 |
| CALL | $724.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 30.8K | 651 | 20.7% | $3.50 | $3.53 |
| CALL | $715.00 | Jul 9, 2026 | 1.6K | 28.4K | 24.0% | $11.96 | $12.61 |
| PUT | $715.00 | Jul 9, 2026 | 4.2K | 28.3K | 24.0% | $2.55 | $2.58 |
| CALL | $725.00 | Jul 7, 2026 | 37.5K | 1.9K | 20.3% | $2.93 | $2.96 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked QQQ expected move questions
- What is the current QQQ expected move?
- As of Jul 6, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 6.85% over the next 32 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $675.05 to $774.25 from the current $724.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the QQQ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is QQQ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.