Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $541.28B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.23 to the broader market. Managed by Invesco, the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 functions as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that commenced operations on March 10, 1999. public since 1999-03-10.
Snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $760.32
- Expected Move
- 5.4%
- Implied High
- $801.15
- Implied Low
- $719.49
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Oct 6, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 5.37%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $719.49 to $801.15 from the current $760.32. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
QQQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 pricing an expected move of 5.37% from $760.32, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the QQQ implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.37%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $719.49 to $801.15. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
QQQ expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. QQQ term-structure is in contango (slope 0.003), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 28.1%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical QQQ range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing QQQ structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. QQQ put/call volume ratio currently at 1.08 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for QQQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $760.32 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | 1 | 14.3% | 0.7% | $766.01 | $754.63 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 2 | 14.7% | 1.1% | $768.59 | $752.05 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 3 | 15.3% | 1.4% | $770.87 | $749.77 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 6 | 13.3% | 1.7% | $773.29 | $747.35 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 7 | 13.9% | 1.9% | $774.96 | $745.68 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 8 | 15.2% | 2.3% | $777.43 | $743.21 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 9 | 15.7% | 2.5% | $779.06 | $741.58 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10 | 16.2% | 2.7% | $780.71 | $739.93 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13 | 15.4% | 2.9% | $782.42 | $738.22 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14 | 15.7% | 3.1% | $783.70 | $736.94 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 17 | 16.7% | 3.6% | $787.72 | $732.92 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 24 | 18.2% | 4.7% | $795.80 | $724.84 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 31 | 18.8% | 5.5% | $801.98 | $718.66 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 38 | 19.1% | 6.2% | $807.18 | $713.46 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 45 | 19.4% | 6.8% | $812.11 | $708.53 |
| Nov 30, 2026 | 55 | 19.1% | 7.4% | $816.69 | $703.95 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 73 | 20.1% | 9.0% | $828.67 | $691.97 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 86 | 20.0% | 9.7% | $834.13 | $686.51 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 101 | 20.3% | 10.7% | $841.51 | $679.13 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 136 | 20.6% | 12.6% | $855.93 | $664.71 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 164 | 21.2% | 14.2% | $868.37 | $652.27 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 176 | 21.3% | 14.8% | $872.78 | $647.86 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 254 | 22.2% | 18.5% | $901.13 | $619.51 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 267 | 22.3% | 19.1% | $905.33 | $615.31 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 346 | 22.9% | 22.3% | $929.84 | $590.80 |
| Sep 30, 2027 | 359 | 23.0% | 22.8% | $933.75 | $586.89 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 437 | 23.2% | 25.4% | $953.33 | $567.31 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 472 | 23.2% | 26.4% | $960.91 | $559.73 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 619 | 23.6% | 30.7% | $993.99 | $526.65 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 801 | 24.1% | 35.7% | $1031.77 | $488.87 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 836 | 24.2% | 36.6% | $1038.78 | $481.86 |
QQQ highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $760.00 | Oct 7, 2026 | 69.3K | 182 | 14.3% | $2.07 | $2.08 |
| PUT | $759.00 | Oct 7, 2026 | 22.3K | 104 | 14.6% | $1.68 | $1.69 |
| CALL | $760.00 | Oct 16, 2026 | 10.0K | 82.9K | 16.2% | $8.82 | $8.85 |
| PUT | $758.00 | Oct 7, 2026 | 22.5K | 119 | 14.8% | $1.34 | $1.35 |
| CALL | $762.00 | Oct 7, 2026 | 50.3K | 13.0K | 13.7% | $1.48 | $1.49 |
| CALL | $761.00 | Oct 7, 2026 | 51.3K | 690 | 14.0% | $1.95 | $1.96 |
| CALL | $775.00 | Oct 16, 2026 | 31.9K | 46.5K | 15.3% | $2.74 | $2.75 |
| PUT | $761.00 | Oct 9, 2026 | 9.0K | 165 | 15.1% | $4.29 | $4.31 |
| PUT | $760.00 | Oct 7, 2026 | 69.3K | 182 | 14.3% | $2.07 | $2.08 |
| PUT | $750.00 | Oct 13, 2026 | 11.1K | 227 | 15.1% | $2.31 | $2.33 |
Top 10 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked QQQ expected move questions
- What is the current QQQ expected move?
- As of Oct 6, 2026, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) has an expected move of 5.37% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $719.49 to $801.15 from the current $760.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the QQQ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is QQQ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.