What is the QID 30-day expected price range?

As of Oct 13, 2026, with QID at $13.11 and ATM IV at 419.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$15.76, or about $-2.65 to $28.87. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.

What does QID risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future QID price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does QID ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

ProShares - UltraShort QQQ (QID) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

ProShares - UltraShort QQQ (QID) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $197.2M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -2.33 to the broader market. The ProShares UltraShort QQQ aims to deliver daily investment results, gross of all fees and expenses, that are two times the opposite of the Nasdaq-100 Index's daily performance. public since 2006-07-13.

Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.

Spot Price: $13.11
ATM IV: 419.3%
IV Rank: 88.0%
IV Percentile: 99.6%
HV 20-Day: 33.3%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.202

As of Oct 13, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort QQQ (QID) at $13.11 has an ATM IV of 419.3%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$15.76. IV rank is 88.0% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 99.6%. The 25-delta skew is -0.202: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How QID probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on ProShares - UltraShort QQQ options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 419.3% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the QID probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where ProShares - UltraShort QQQ spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 419.3% and spot at $13.11, the 1σ band is approximately ±144.7% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 33.3% runs 386.0 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

QID risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. QID's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.202) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the QID distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With QID IV rank at 88.0%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Chart aggregates top-ranked contracts by strike from the institutional-grade nightly options scan. Sparse coverage on long-tail tickers reflects the scan's S&P 500/400/600 + ETF focus.

QID highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$16.00	Oct 16, 2026	0	158	956.4%	$2.50	$3.10
PUT	$15.00	Oct 16, 2026	0	596	956.2%	$1.80	$2.00
PUT	$14.00	Oct 16, 2026	1	121	915.4%	$0.80	$0.95
CALL	$13.00	Oct 16, 2026	436	777	419.3%	$0.20	$0.30

Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked QID probability analysis questions

What is the QID 30-day expected price range?: As of Oct 13, 2026, with QID at $13.11 and ATM IV at 419.3%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$15.76, or about $-2.65 to $28.87. IV rank is elevated, so the priced distribution is wider than the 1-year typical width.
What does QID risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future QID price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does QID ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.