T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $503.0M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 4.20 to the broader market. The fund, under normal circumstances, invests in swap agreements that provide 200% daily exposure to NVDA equal to at least 80% of its net assets. public since 2023-10-19.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $22.71
- Expected Move
- 27.4%
- Implied High
- $28.93
- Implied Low
- $16.49
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) has an expected move of 27.37%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $16.49 to $28.93 from the current $22.71. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
NVDX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF pricing an expected move of 27.37% from $22.71, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for NVDX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $22.71 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 130.4% | 18.1% | $26.81 | $18.61 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 108.8% | 21.3% | $27.55 | $17.87 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 102.1% | 24.5% | $28.27 | $17.15 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 96.6% | 26.8% | $28.79 | $16.63 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 93.6% | 28.6% | $29.20 | $16.22 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 90.3% | 30.6% | $29.67 | $15.75 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 90.0% | 37.4% | $31.20 | $14.22 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 89.2% | 52.4% | $34.61 | $10.81 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 90.9% | 70.1% | $38.63 | $6.79 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 90.6% | 74.2% | $39.57 | $5.85 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 92.6% | 120.3% | $50.03 | $-4.61 |
Frequently asked NVDX expected move questions
- What is the current NVDX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) has an expected move of 27.37% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $16.49 to $28.93 from the current $22.71. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the NVDX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is NVDX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.