T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $339.5M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 4.10 to the broader market. Under typical market conditions, this fund primarily allocates at least 80% of its net assets to swap agreements. public since 2023-10-19.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $16.86
- Expected Move
- 21.2%
- Implied High
- $20.43
- Implied Low
- $13.29
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) has an expected move of 21.17%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $13.29 to $20.43 from the current $16.86. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
NVDX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF pricing an expected move of 21.17% from $16.86, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the NVDX implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 21.17%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $13.29 to $20.43. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
NVDX expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. NVDX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.006), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing NVDX structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. NVDX put/call volume ratio currently at 0.32 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for NVDX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $16.86 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 71.9% | 5.3% | $17.76 | $15.96 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 67.4% | 11.2% | $18.74 | $14.98 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 73.4% | 15.8% | $19.53 | $14.19 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 71.7% | 18.4% | $19.96 | $13.76 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 74.1% | 21.6% | $20.50 | $13.22 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 74.7% | 24.1% | $20.92 | $12.80 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 74.8% | 28.2% | $21.62 | $12.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 81.5% | 38.2% | $23.29 | $10.43 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 83.4% | 57.1% | $26.48 | $7.24 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 82.7% | 61.1% | $27.16 | $6.56 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 86.3% | 107.8% | $35.04 | $-1.32 |
Frequently asked NVDX expected move questions
- What is the current NVDX expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) has an expected move of 21.17% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.29 to $20.43 from the current $16.86. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the NVDX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is NVDX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.