Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $440.9M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 4.61 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Dow Jones U. public since 2015-08-19.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $31.54
- Expected Move
- 28.5%
- Implied High
- $40.54
- Implied Low
- $22.54
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) has an expected move of 28.54%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.54 to $40.54 from the current $31.54. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
NAIL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 28.54% from $31.54, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for NAIL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $31.54 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 94.6% | 13.1% | $35.67 | $27.41 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 95.1% | 18.6% | $37.41 | $25.67 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 96.7% | 23.2% | $38.86 | $24.22 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 100.7% | 27.9% | $40.34 | $22.74 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 97.6% | 29.8% | $40.94 | $22.14 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 97.6% | 33.1% | $41.98 | $21.10 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 98.3% | 40.8% | $44.42 | $18.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 96.4% | 56.6% | $49.40 | $13.68 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 99.6% | 76.8% | $55.76 | $7.32 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 96.5% | 79.1% | $56.48 | $6.60 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 94.9% | 123.3% | $70.42 | $-7.34 |
Frequently asked NAIL expected move questions
- What is the current NAIL expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) has an expected move of 28.54% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.54 to $40.54 from the current $31.54. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the NAIL expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is NAIL expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.