What is the current NAIL expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) has an expected move of 27.29% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $20.64 to $36.14 from the current $28.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the NAIL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is NAIL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $404.8M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 3.85 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF is designed to provide daily investment outcomes that are triple (300%) the performance of the Dow Jones U. public since 2015-08-19.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $28.39
Expected Move: 27.3%
Implied High: $36.14
Implied Low: $20.64
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) has an expected move of 27.29%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $20.64 to $36.14 from the current $28.39. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

NAIL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 27.29% from $28.39, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the NAIL implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 27.29%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $20.64 to $36.14. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

NAIL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. NAIL term-structure is in contango (slope 0.025), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. Combined with the 70.8% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical NAIL trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing NAIL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. NAIL put/call volume ratio currently at 3.09 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for NAIL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $28.39 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	105.4%	7.8%	$30.61	$26.17
Oct 9, 2026	9	91.2%	14.3%	$32.46	$24.32
Oct 16, 2026	16	90.0%	18.8%	$33.74	$23.04
Oct 23, 2026	23	99.8%	25.1%	$35.50	$21.28
Oct 30, 2026	30	95.2%	27.3%	$36.14	$20.64
Nov 6, 2026	37	97.7%	31.1%	$37.22	$19.56
Nov 20, 2026	51	98.1%	36.7%	$38.80	$17.98
Dec 18, 2026	79	93.5%	43.5%	$40.74	$16.04
Jan 15, 2027	107	88.9%	48.1%	$42.06	$14.72
Mar 19, 2027	170	92.2%	62.9%	$46.25	$10.53
Jan 21, 2028	478	87.2%	99.8%	$56.72	$0.06
Jan 19, 2029	842	88.7%	134.7%	$66.64	$-9.86

Frequently asked NAIL expected move questions

What is the current NAIL expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X ETF (NAIL) has an expected move of 27.29% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $20.64 to $36.14 from the current $28.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the NAIL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is NAIL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.