T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $100.8M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -2.43 to the broader market. The fund, under normal circumstances, invests in swap agreements that provide 200% inverse (opposite)daily exposure to MSTR equal to at least 80% of the fund’s net assets (plus borrowings for investment purposes). public since 2024-09-18.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $4.96
- Expected Move
- 44.2%
- Implied High
- $7.15
- Implied Low
- $2.77
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) has an expected move of 44.17%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $2.77 to $7.15 from the current $4.96. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MSTZ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF pricing an expected move of 44.17% from $4.96, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MSTZ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $4.96 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 125.9% | 17.4% | $5.82 | $4.10 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 132.4% | 25.9% | $6.25 | $3.67 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 141.7% | 34.0% | $6.65 | $3.27 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 162.0% | 44.9% | $7.19 | $2.73 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 140.0% | 42.7% | $7.08 | $2.84 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 133.8% | 45.4% | $7.21 | $2.71 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 134.7% | 56.0% | $7.74 | $2.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 152.3% | 89.5% | $9.40 | $0.52 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 164.3% | 126.7% | $11.24 | $-1.32 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 170.3% | 139.5% | $11.88 | $-1.96 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 163.4% | 212.3% | $15.49 | $-5.57 |
Frequently asked MSTZ expected move questions
- What is the current MSTZ expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) has an expected move of 44.17% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $2.77 to $7.15 from the current $4.96. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MSTZ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MSTZ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.