What is the current MSTZ expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) has an expected move of 58.09% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $6.51 to $24.57 from the current $15.54. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the MSTZ expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is MSTZ expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $302.8M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -2.25 to the broader market. This fund generally commits a minimum of 80% of its net assets, along with any borrowed capital for investment purposes, into swap agreements. public since 2024-09-18.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $15.54
Expected Move: 58.1%
Implied High: $24.57
Implied Low: $6.51
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) has an expected move of 58.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $6.51 to $24.57 from the current $15.54. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

MSTZ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF pricing an expected move of 58.09% from $15.54, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the MSTZ implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 58.09%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $6.51 to $24.57. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

MSTZ expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. MSTZ term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.007), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 82.7% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical MSTZ trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing MSTZ structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. MSTZ put/call volume ratio currently at 0.39 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for MSTZ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $15.54 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	226.8%	16.8%	$18.15	$12.93
Jul 10, 2026	10	201.1%	33.3%	$20.71	$10.37
Jul 17, 2026	17	199.6%	43.1%	$22.23	$8.85
Jul 24, 2026	24	200.6%	51.4%	$23.53	$7.55
Jul 31, 2026	31	202.9%	59.1%	$24.73	$6.35
Aug 7, 2026	38	202.2%	65.2%	$25.68	$5.40
Aug 21, 2026	52	205.3%	77.5%	$27.58	$3.50
Sep 18, 2026	80	202.2%	94.7%	$30.25	$0.83
Dec 18, 2026	171	204.8%	140.2%	$37.32	$-6.24
Jan 15, 2027	199	205.2%	151.5%	$39.09	$-8.01
Jan 21, 2028	570	215.5%	269.3%	$57.39	$-26.31

Frequently asked MSTZ expected move questions

What is the current MSTZ expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) has an expected move of 58.09% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $6.51 to $24.57 from the current $15.54. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the MSTZ expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is MSTZ expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.