What is the MSTW 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with MSTW at $7.25 and ATM IV at 91.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.90, or about $5.35 to $9.15. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does MSTW risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MSTW price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does MSTW ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Roundhill Investments - MSTR WeeklyPay ETF (MSTW) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Roundhill Investments - MSTR WeeklyPay ETF (MSTW) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Income industry, with a market capitalization near $24.0M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 3.23 to the broader market. The Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF (“MSTW”) is designed for investors seeking a combination of income and growth potential. public since 2025-07-24.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $7.25
ATM IV: 91.5%
IV Rank: 18.3%
IV Percentile: 40.7%
HV 20-Day: 74.0%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.168

As of May 29, 2026, Roundhill Investments - MSTR WeeklyPay ETF (MSTW) at $7.25 has an ATM IV of 91.5%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.90. IV rank is 18.3% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 40.7%. The 25-delta skew is +0.168: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How MSTW probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Roundhill Investments - MSTR WeeklyPay ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 91.5% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the MSTW probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Roundhill Investments - MSTR WeeklyPay ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 91.5% and spot at $7.25, the 1σ band is approximately ±31.6% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 74.0% runs 17.5 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

MSTW risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the MSTW distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With MSTW IV rank at 18.3%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked MSTW probability analysis questions

What is the MSTW 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with MSTW at $7.25 and ATM IV at 91.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.90, or about $5.35 to $9.15. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does MSTW risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MSTW price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does MSTW ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.