What is the MST 30-day expected price range?

As of Aug 28, 2026, with MST at $11.99 and ATM IV at 113.6%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.90, or about $8.09 to $15.89. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does MST risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MST price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does MST ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF (MST) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF (MST) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $1.1M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 5.11 to the broader market. The Defiance Daily Target 1. public since 2025-05-02.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $11.99
ATM IV: 113.6%
IV Rank: 18.5%
IV Percentile: 13.7%
HV 20-Day: 126.5%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.279

As of Aug 28, 2026, Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF (MST) at $11.99 has an ATM IV of 113.6%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$3.90. IV rank is 18.5% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 13.7%. The 25-delta skew is -0.279: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How MST probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 113.6% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the MST probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 113.6% and spot at $11.99, the 1σ band is approximately ±39.2% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 126.5% runs 12.9 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

MST risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. MST's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.279) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the MST distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With MST IV rank at 18.5%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked MST probability analysis questions

What is the MST 30-day expected price range?: As of Aug 28, 2026, with MST at $11.99 and ATM IV at 113.6%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.90, or about $8.09 to $15.89. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does MST risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MST price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does MST ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.