What is the MST 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with MST at $25.87 and ATM IV at 114.1%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$8.46, or about $17.41 to $34.33.

What does MST risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MST price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does MST ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF (MST) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF (MST) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $2.4M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 5.13 to the broader market. The Defiance Daily Target 1. public since 2025-05-02.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $25.87
ATM IV: 114.1%
HV 20-Day: 110.6%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.090

As of May 29, 2026, Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF (MST) at $25.87 has an ATM IV of 114.1%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$8.46. The 25-delta skew is +0.090: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How MST probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 114.1% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the MST probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Leveraged Long + Income MSTR ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 114.1% and spot at $25.87, the 1σ band is approximately ±39.4% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 110.6% runs 3.5 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

MST risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the MST distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked MST probability analysis questions

What is the MST 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with MST at $25.87 and ATM IV at 114.1%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$8.46, or about $17.41 to $34.33.
What does MST risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MST price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does MST ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.