What is the current MSFL expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF (MSFL) has an expected move of 19.52% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $11.76 to $17.46 from the current $14.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the MSFL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is MSFL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF (MSFL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF (MSFL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $10.8M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.75 to the broader market. This fund, MSFL, aims to generate daily investment returns that are twice (200%) the daily percentage movement of Microsoft Corporation's common stock (NASDAQ: MSFT), prior to any fees or operational expenses. public since 2024-03-18.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $14.61
Expected Move: 19.5%
Implied High: $17.46
Implied Low: $11.76
Front DTE: 17 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF (MSFL) has an expected move of 19.52%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $11.76 to $17.46 from the current $14.61. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

MSFL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF pricing an expected move of 19.52% from $14.61, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the MSFL implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 19.52%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $11.76 to $17.46. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

MSFL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. MSFL term-structure is in contango (slope 0.125), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing MSFL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. MSFL put/call volume ratio currently at 3.85 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for MSFL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $14.61 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 17, 2026	17	68.1%	14.7%	$16.76	$12.46
Aug 21, 2026	52	80.6%	30.4%	$19.05	$10.17
Sep 18, 2026	80	76.4%	35.8%	$19.84	$9.38
Dec 18, 2026	171	74.7%	51.1%	$22.08	$7.14

Frequently asked MSFL expected move questions

What is the current MSFL expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF (MSFL) has an expected move of 19.52% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $11.76 to $17.46 from the current $14.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the MSFL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is MSFL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.