What is the MISL 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with MISL at $43.88 and ATM IV at 38.1%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.79, or about $39.09 to $48.67. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does MISL risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MISL price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does MISL ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $206.2M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.89 to the broader market. The First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF aims to mirror the financial performance, specifically the capital appreciation and income generation, of the Indxx US Aerospace & Defense Index, before factoring in its operational costs. Led by James M. Dykas, public since 2022-10-26.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $43.88
ATM IV: 38.1%
IV Rank: 24.2%
IV Percentile: 66.3%
HV 20-Day: 24.9%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.021

As of Jul 15, 2026, First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL) at $43.88 has an ATM IV of 38.1%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.79. IV rank is 24.2% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 66.3%. The 25-delta skew is +0.021: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How MISL probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 38.1% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the MISL probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 38.1% and spot at $43.88, the 1σ band is approximately ±13.1% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 24.9% runs 13.2 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

MISL risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the MISL distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With MISL IV rank at 24.2%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked MISL probability analysis questions

What is the MISL 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with MISL at $43.88 and ATM IV at 38.1%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.79, or about $39.09 to $48.67. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does MISL risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MISL price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does MISL ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.