State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust (MDY) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust (MDY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $25.73B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.07 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P MidCap 400 Index (the “Index”) public since 1995-05-04.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $659.83
- Expected Move
- 5.5%
- Implied High
- $696.34
- Implied Low
- $623.32
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust (MDY) has an expected move of 5.53%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $623.32 to $696.34 from the current $659.83. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MDY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust pricing an expected move of 5.53% from $659.83, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MDY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $659.83 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 19.3% | 5.9% | $698.70 | $620.96 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 19.1% | 7.9% | $712.19 | $607.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 19.5% | 11.5% | $735.43 | $584.23 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 20.1% | 15.5% | $762.09 | $557.57 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 19.9% | 16.3% | $767.41 | $552.25 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 19.9% | 20.8% | $796.94 | $522.72 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 20.2% | 25.5% | $827.99 | $491.67 |
Frequently asked MDY expected move questions
- What is the current MDY expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust (MDY) has an expected move of 5.53% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $623.32 to $696.34 from the current $659.83. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MDY expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MDY expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.