Roundhill Investments - Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Roundhill Investments - Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $3.68B, listed on CBOE, employing roughly 394 people, carrying a beta of 1.21 to the broader market. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF offers equal weight exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Led by Dror Sharon, public since 2023-04-11.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $70.09
- Expected Move
- 7.7%
- Implied High
- $75.48
- Implied Low
- $64.70
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has an expected move of 7.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $64.70 to $75.48 from the current $70.09. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MAGS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Roundhill Investments - Magnificent Seven ETF pricing an expected move of 7.68% from $70.09, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MAGS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $70.09 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 26.0% | 3.6% | $72.61 | $67.57 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 25.9% | 5.1% | $73.65 | $66.53 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 26.7% | 6.4% | $74.58 | $65.60 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 27.1% | 7.5% | $75.35 | $64.83 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 26.3% | 8.0% | $75.72 | $64.46 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 26.4% | 9.0% | $76.37 | $63.81 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 26.2% | 10.9% | $77.72 | $62.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 27.6% | 16.2% | $81.46 | $58.72 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 28.3% | 21.8% | $85.38 | $54.80 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 27.1% | 22.2% | $85.65 | $54.53 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 28.1% | 36.5% | $95.68 | $44.50 |
Frequently asked MAGS expected move questions
- What is the current MAGS expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has an expected move of 7.68% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $64.70 to $75.48 from the current $70.09. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MAGS expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MAGS expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.