What is the current LABU expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) has an expected move of 23.69% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $210.36 to $340.98 from the current $275.67. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the LABU expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is LABU expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $1.53B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 3.05 to the broader market. Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X ETF is an exchange traded fund launched by Direxion Investments. public since 2015-05-28.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $275.67
Expected Move: 23.7%
Implied High: $340.98
Implied Low: $210.36
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) has an expected move of 23.69%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $210.36 to $340.98 from the current $275.67. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

LABU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares pricing an expected move of 23.69% from $275.67, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the LABU implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.69%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $210.36 to $340.98. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

LABU expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. LABU term-structure is in contango (slope 0.010), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 25.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical LABU range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing LABU structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. LABU put/call volume ratio currently at 1.59 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for LABU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $275.67 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	77.4%	10.7%	$305.22	$246.12
Aug 28, 2026	14	81.1%	15.9%	$319.46	$231.88
Sep 4, 2026	21	83.3%	20.0%	$330.75	$220.59
Sep 11, 2026	28	82.3%	22.8%	$338.51	$212.83
Sep 18, 2026	35	83.3%	25.8%	$346.78	$204.56
Sep 25, 2026	42	84.5%	28.7%	$354.69	$196.65
Oct 2, 2026	49	85.3%	31.3%	$361.83	$189.51
Dec 18, 2026	126	92.4%	54.3%	$425.33	$126.01
Jan 15, 2027	154	93.1%	60.5%	$442.38	$108.96
Mar 19, 2027	217	94.2%	72.6%	$475.90	$75.44
Jan 21, 2028	525	96.2%	115.4%	$593.72	$-42.38

Frequently asked LABU expected move questions

What is the current LABU expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) has an expected move of 23.69% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $210.36 to $340.98 from the current $275.67. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the LABU expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is LABU expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.