Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $30.2M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -3.15 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull and Bear 3X ETFs seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index. public since 2015-05-28.
Snapshot as of May 13, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $13.13
- Expected Move
- 27.6%
- Implied High
- $16.76
- Implied Low
- $9.50
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of May 13, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) has an expected move of 27.64%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $9.50 to $16.76 from the current $13.13. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
LABD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 27.64% from $13.13, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for LABD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $13.13 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 2 | 115.7% | 8.6% | $14.25 | $12.01 |
| May 22, 2026 | 9 | 88.7% | 13.9% | $14.96 | $11.30 |
| May 29, 2026 | 16 | 85.6% | 17.9% | $15.48 | $10.78 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 23 | 106.9% | 26.8% | $16.65 | $9.61 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 30 | 96.4% | 27.6% | $16.76 | $9.50 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 36 | 88.9% | 27.9% | $16.80 | $9.46 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 44 | 90.8% | 31.5% | $17.27 | $8.99 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 128 | 91.5% | 54.2% | $20.24 | $6.02 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 219 | 82.7% | 64.1% | $21.54 | $4.72 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 247 | 91.6% | 75.4% | $23.02 | $3.24 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 618 | 101.2% | 131.7% | $30.42 | $-4.16 |
Frequently asked LABD expected move questions
- What is the current LABD expected move?
- As of May 13, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) has an expected move of 27.64% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $9.50 to $16.76 from the current $13.13. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the LABD expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is LABD expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.