What is the current LABD expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) has an expected move of 27.78% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $5.00 to $8.84 from the current $6.92. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the LABD expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is LABD expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $16.1M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -3.12 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull and Bear 3X ETFs are designed to deliver daily investment returns reflecting triple (300%) the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index, or triple its inverse (opposite) performance, before factoring in any fees or expenses. public since 2015-05-28.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $6.92
Expected Move: 27.8%
Implied High: $8.84
Implied Low: $5.00
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) has an expected move of 27.78%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $5.00 to $8.84 from the current $6.92. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

LABD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 27.78% from $6.92, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the LABD implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 27.78%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $5.00 to $8.84. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

LABD expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. LABD term-structure is in contango (slope 0.035), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing LABD structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. LABD put/call volume ratio currently at 0.06 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for LABD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $6.92 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	55.5%	4.1%	$7.20	$6.64
Oct 9, 2026	9	92.1%	14.5%	$7.92	$5.92
Oct 16, 2026	16	96.1%	20.1%	$8.31	$5.53
Oct 23, 2026	23	98.6%	24.8%	$8.63	$5.21
Oct 30, 2026	30	96.9%	27.8%	$8.84	$5.00
Nov 6, 2026	37	100.4%	32.0%	$9.13	$4.71
Nov 20, 2026	51	96.1%	35.9%	$9.41	$4.43
Dec 18, 2026	79	97.1%	45.2%	$10.05	$3.79
Jan 15, 2027	107	102.8%	55.7%	$10.77	$3.07
Mar 19, 2027	170	105.8%	72.2%	$11.92	$1.92
Jan 21, 2028	478	117.8%	134.8%	$16.25	$-2.41
Jan 19, 2029	842	111.7%	169.7%	$18.66	$-4.82

Frequently asked LABD expected move questions

What is the current LABD expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X ETF (LABD) has an expected move of 27.78% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $5.00 to $8.84 from the current $6.92. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the LABD expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is LABD expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.