State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $3.80B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.21 to the broader market. SPDR Series Trust - State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is an exchange traded fund launched by State Street Global Advisors, Inc. public since 2006-06-19.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $74.77
- Expected Move
- 6.9%
- Implied High
- $79.91
- Implied Low
- $69.63
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has an expected move of 6.87%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $69.63 to $79.91 from the current $74.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KRE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF pricing an expected move of 6.87% from $74.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the KRE implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.87%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $69.63 to $79.91. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
KRE expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KRE term-structure is in contango (slope 0.022), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 6.9%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KRE range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing KRE structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KRE put/call volume ratio currently at 1.04 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KRE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $74.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 25.5% | 1.9% | $76.18 | $73.36 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 21.0% | 3.5% | $77.37 | $72.17 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 21.5% | 4.6% | $78.24 | $71.30 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 23.7% | 6.1% | $79.31 | $70.23 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 24.0% | 7.0% | $80.00 | $69.54 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 26.2% | 8.5% | $81.09 | $68.45 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 23.4% | 8.8% | $81.37 | $68.17 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 23.8% | 11.1% | $83.10 | $66.44 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 92 | 24.2% | 12.1% | $83.85 | $65.69 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 108 | 24.2% | 13.2% | $84.61 | $64.93 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 24.6% | 15.4% | $86.28 | $63.26 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 25.1% | 17.2% | $87.62 | $61.92 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 184 | 25.4% | 18.0% | $88.25 | $61.29 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 25.4% | 18.8% | $88.79 | $60.75 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 274 | 26.5% | 23.0% | $91.94 | $57.60 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 352 | 26.6% | 26.1% | $94.30 | $55.24 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 444 | 26.6% | 29.3% | $96.71 | $52.83 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 535 | 27.5% | 33.3% | $99.66 | $49.88 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 27.4% | 34.2% | $100.37 | $49.17 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 899 | 28.4% | 44.6% | $108.10 | $41.44 |
KRE highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $75.00 | Jul 10, 2026 | 4.2K | 314 | 21.0% | $0.94 | $1.04 |
Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked KRE expected move questions
- What is the current KRE expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has an expected move of 6.87% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.63 to $79.91 from the current $74.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KRE expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KRE expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.