State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $3.92B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.01 to the broader market. SPDR Series Trust - State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is an exchange traded fund launched by State Street Global Advisors, Inc. public since 2006-06-19.
Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $77.94
- Expected Move
- 6.0%
- Implied High
- $82.63
- Implied Low
- $73.25
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Aug 14, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has an expected move of 6.02%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $73.25 to $82.63 from the current $77.94. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KRE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF pricing an expected move of 6.02% from $77.94, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the KRE implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.02%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $73.25 to $82.63. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
KRE expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KRE term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.003), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 0.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KRE range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing KRE structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KRE put/call volume ratio currently at 1.70 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KRE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $77.94 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 7 | 17.6% | 2.4% | $79.84 | $76.04 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 14 | 19.7% | 3.9% | $80.95 | $74.93 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21 | 20.7% | 5.0% | $81.81 | $74.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 28 | 21.1% | 5.8% | $82.49 | $73.39 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 35 | 20.8% | 6.4% | $82.96 | $72.92 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 42 | 21.9% | 7.4% | $83.73 | $72.15 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 47 | 20.8% | 7.5% | $83.76 | $72.12 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 49 | 22.9% | 8.4% | $84.48 | $71.40 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63 | 21.8% | 9.1% | $85.00 | $70.88 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 98 | 22.9% | 11.9% | $87.19 | $68.69 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 126 | 23.5% | 13.8% | $88.70 | $67.18 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 139 | 23.3% | 14.4% | $89.15 | $66.73 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 154 | 24.2% | 15.7% | $90.19 | $65.69 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 217 | 25.0% | 19.3% | $92.96 | $62.92 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 229 | 24.8% | 19.6% | $93.25 | $62.63 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 307 | 25.3% | 23.2% | $96.02 | $59.86 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 320 | 25.4% | 23.8% | $96.48 | $59.40 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 399 | 25.6% | 26.8% | $98.80 | $57.08 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 490 | 26.0% | 30.1% | $101.42 | $54.46 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 525 | 26.2% | 31.4% | $102.43 | $53.45 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 854 | 26.9% | 41.1% | $110.01 | $45.87 |
KRE highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $80.00 | Sep 30, 2026 | 3.0K | 147 | 20.8% | $1.28 | $1.66 |
Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked KRE expected move questions
- What is the current KRE expected move?
- As of Aug 14, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has an expected move of 6.02% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $73.25 to $82.63 from the current $77.94. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KRE expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KRE expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.