State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $3.52B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.09 to the broader market. SPDR Series Trust - State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is an exchange traded fund launched by State Street Global Advisors, Inc. public since 2006-06-19.
Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $69.50
- Expected Move
- 7.7%
- Implied High
- $74.84
- Implied Low
- $64.16
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Sep 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has an expected move of 7.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $64.16 to $74.84 from the current $69.50. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KRE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF pricing an expected move of 7.68% from $69.50, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the KRE implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.68%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $64.16 to $74.84. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
KRE expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KRE term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.002), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 21.9%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KRE range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing KRE structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KRE put/call volume ratio currently at 3.98 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KRE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $69.50 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 2 | 29.0% | 2.1% | $70.99 | $68.01 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 9 | 24.8% | 3.9% | $72.21 | $66.79 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16 | 25.1% | 5.3% | $73.15 | $65.85 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23 | 24.9% | 6.3% | $73.84 | $65.16 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 30 | 26.8% | 7.7% | $74.84 | $64.16 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 37 | 26.6% | 8.5% | $75.39 | $63.61 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 51 | 26.1% | 9.8% | $76.28 | $62.72 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 79 | 25.7% | 12.0% | $77.81 | $61.19 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 92 | 24.2% | 12.1% | $77.94 | $61.06 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 107 | 24.3% | 13.2% | $78.64 | $60.36 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 170 | 24.9% | 17.0% | $81.31 | $57.69 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 182 | 24.5% | 17.3% | $81.52 | $57.48 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 260 | 25.1% | 21.2% | $84.22 | $54.78 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 273 | 24.6% | 21.3% | $84.29 | $54.71 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 352 | 24.7% | 24.3% | $86.36 | $52.64 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 443 | 25.3% | 27.9% | $88.87 | $50.13 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 478 | 25.1% | 28.7% | $89.46 | $49.54 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 807 | 25.6% | 38.1% | $95.96 | $43.04 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 842 | 25.5% | 38.7% | $96.42 | $42.58 |
KRE highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $62.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 72.0K | 1.7K | 28.2% | $1.12 | $1.22 |
| PUT | $55.00 | Mar 19, 2027 | 60.0K | 1.6K | 30.7% | $0.54 | $0.79 |
| PUT | $62.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 72.0K | 1.7K | 28.2% | $1.12 | $1.22 |
| CALL | $71.50 | Oct 2, 2026 | 10.3K | 253 | 31.4% | $0.07 | $0.12 |
| PUT | $55.00 | Mar 19, 2027 | 60.0K | 1.6K | 30.7% | $0.54 | $0.79 |
| PUT | $67.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 28.7K | 1.7K | 27.6% | $1.54 | $1.64 |
| CALL | $73.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 28.3K | 11.7K | 24.7% | $1.26 | $1.43 |
| PUT | $67.00 | Nov 20, 2026 | 28.7K | 1.7K | 27.6% | $1.54 | $1.64 |
Top 8 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked KRE expected move questions
- What is the current KRE expected move?
- As of Sep 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has an expected move of 7.68% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $64.16 to $74.84 from the current $69.50. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KRE expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KRE expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.