What is the current KOLD expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 16.99% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $25.28 to $35.62 from the current $30.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KOLD expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KOLD expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $127.2M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -3.29 to the broader market. The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF is structured to deliver daily returns that are two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Natural Gas SubindexSM, excluding any associated fees or operating expenses. public since 2011-10-06.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $30.45
Expected Move: 17.0%
Implied High: $35.62
Implied Low: $25.28
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 16.99%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $25.28 to $35.62 from the current $30.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KOLD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas pricing an expected move of 16.99% from $30.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KOLD implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 16.99%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $25.28 to $35.62. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KOLD expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KOLD term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 0.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KOLD range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing KOLD structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KOLD put/call volume ratio currently at 0.22 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KOLD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	57.8%	8.0%	$32.89	$28.01
Aug 28, 2026	14	55.7%	10.9%	$33.77	$27.13
Sep 4, 2026	21	60.4%	14.5%	$34.86	$26.04
Sep 11, 2026	28	59.3%	16.4%	$35.45	$25.45
Sep 18, 2026	35	59.2%	18.3%	$36.03	$24.87
Sep 25, 2026	42	58.7%	19.9%	$36.51	$24.39
Oct 2, 2026	49	58.4%	21.4%	$36.97	$23.93
Nov 20, 2026	98	80.3%	41.6%	$43.12	$17.78
Jan 15, 2027	154	95.9%	62.3%	$49.42	$11.48
Feb 19, 2027	189	101.6%	73.1%	$52.71	$8.19
Mar 19, 2027	217	101.5%	78.3%	$54.28	$6.62
Jan 21, 2028	525	99.8%	119.7%	$66.90	$-6.00

Frequently asked KOLD expected move questions

What is the current KOLD expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 16.99% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $25.28 to $35.62 from the current $30.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KOLD expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KOLD expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.