ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $140.7M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -4.38 to the broader market. ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Natural Gas SubindexSM. public since 2011-10-06.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $24.48
- Expected Move
- 23.6%
- Implied High
- $30.27
- Implied Low
- $18.69
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 23.63%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.69 to $30.27 from the current $24.48. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KOLD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas pricing an expected move of 23.63% from $24.48, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KOLD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.48 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 68.9% | 9.5% | $26.82 | $22.14 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 78.8% | 15.4% | $28.26 | $20.70 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 82.5% | 19.8% | $29.32 | $19.64 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 81.9% | 22.7% | $30.03 | $18.93 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 83.3% | 25.4% | $30.70 | $18.26 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 84.5% | 28.7% | $31.50 | $17.46 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 86.7% | 36.0% | $33.30 | $15.66 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 92.0% | 47.7% | $36.15 | $12.81 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 99.2% | 71.4% | $41.95 | $7.01 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 101.2% | 82.9% | $44.78 | $4.18 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 106.0% | 137.7% | $58.19 | $-9.23 |
Frequently asked KOLD expected move questions
- What is the current KOLD expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 23.63% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.69 to $30.27 from the current $24.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KOLD expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KOLD expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.