What is the current KOLD expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 22.05% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.06 to $34.54 from the current $28.30. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KOLD expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KOLD expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $125.9M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -3.29 to the broader market. The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF is structured to deliver daily returns that are two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Natural Gas SubindexSM, excluding any associated fees or operating expenses. public since 2011-10-06.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $28.30
Expected Move: 22.0%
Implied High: $34.54
Implied Low: $22.06
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 22.05%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.06 to $34.54 from the current $28.30. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KOLD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas pricing an expected move of 22.05% from $28.30, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KOLD implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 22.05%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $22.06 to $34.54. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KOLD expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KOLD term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.005), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 16.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KOLD range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing KOLD structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KOLD put/call volume ratio currently at 0.20 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KOLD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $28.30 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	81.4%	6.0%	$30.01	$26.59
Oct 9, 2026	9	74.1%	11.6%	$31.59	$25.01
Oct 16, 2026	16	72.1%	15.1%	$32.57	$24.03
Oct 23, 2026	23	74.1%	18.6%	$33.56	$23.04
Oct 30, 2026	30	76.9%	22.0%	$34.54	$22.06
Nov 6, 2026	37	76.4%	24.3%	$35.18	$21.42
Nov 20, 2026	51	78.3%	29.3%	$36.58	$20.02
Jan 15, 2027	107	89.0%	48.2%	$41.94	$14.66
Feb 19, 2027	142	90.1%	56.2%	$44.20	$12.40
Mar 19, 2027	170	92.9%	63.4%	$46.24	$10.36
May 21, 2027	233	92.1%	73.6%	$49.12	$7.48
Jan 21, 2028	478	84.9%	97.2%	$55.80	$0.80
Jan 19, 2029	842	91.4%	138.8%	$67.59	$-10.99

Frequently asked KOLD expected move questions

What is the current KOLD expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) has an expected move of 22.05% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.06 to $34.54 from the current $28.30. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KOLD expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KOLD expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.