State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $458.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.22 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Capital Markets Select Industry Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide exposure to the capital markets segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Asset Management & Custody Banks, Diversified Capital Markets, Financial Exchanges & Data, and Investment Banking & BrokerageSeeks to track a modified equal weighted index which provides the potential for unconcentrated industry exposure across large, mid and small cap stocksAllows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional sector based investing public since 2005-11-15.
Snapshot as of May 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $154.41
- Expected Move
- 5.8%
- Implied High
- $163.31
- Implied Low
- $145.51
- Front DTE
- 35 days
As of May 14, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) has an expected move of 5.76%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $145.51 to $163.31 from the current $154.41. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KCE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF pricing an expected move of 5.76% from $154.41, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KCE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $154.41 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 1 | 64.2% | 3.4% | $159.60 | $149.22 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 35 | 20.1% | 6.2% | $164.02 | $144.80 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 64 | 20.3% | 8.5% | $167.54 | $141.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 127 | 21.2% | 12.5% | $173.72 | $135.10 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 218 | 22.0% | 17.0% | $180.66 | $128.16 |
Frequently asked KCE expected move questions
- What is the current KCE expected move?
- As of May 14, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) has an expected move of 5.76% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $145.51 to $163.31 from the current $154.41. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KCE expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KCE expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.