KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF (KBA) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF (KBA) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $306.6M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.72 to the broader market. Under normal circumstances, the fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets in securities of the underlying index and other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, including depositary receipts. public since 2014-03-05.
Snapshot as of May 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $34.42
- Expected Move
- 12.5%
- Implied High
- $38.71
- Implied Low
- $30.13
- Front DTE
- 35 days
As of May 14, 2026, KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF (KBA) has an expected move of 12.47%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $30.13 to $38.71 from the current $34.42. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KBA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF pricing an expected move of 12.47% from $34.42, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KBA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $34.42 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 1 | 252.5% | 13.2% | $38.97 | $29.87 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 35 | 43.5% | 13.5% | $39.06 | $29.78 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 64 | 38.5% | 16.1% | $39.97 | $28.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 127 | 27.6% | 16.3% | $40.02 | $28.82 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 218 | 27.5% | 21.3% | $41.74 | $27.10 |
Frequently asked KBA expected move questions
- What is the current KBA expected move?
- As of May 14, 2026, KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF (KBA) has an expected move of 12.47% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $30.13 to $38.71 from the current $34.42. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KBA expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KBA expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.