State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $8.59B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.67 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Bloomberg High Yield Very Liquid Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide a diversified exposure to US dollar-denominated high yield corporate bonds with above-average liquidityA more cost efficient way to implement a high yield exposure than via individual bondsRebalanced on the last business day of the month public since 2007-12-04.

Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$95.77

Expected Move

1.6%

Implied High

$97.31

Implied Low

$94.23

Front DTE

34 days

As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) has an expected move of 1.61%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $94.23 to $97.31 from the current $95.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

JNK Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 1.61% from $95.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for JNK derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $95.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked JNK expected move questions

What is the current JNK expected move?

As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) has an expected move of 1.61% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $94.23 to $97.31 from the current $95.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the JNK expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is JNK expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.