iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IWP) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IWP) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $19.52B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.19 to the broader market. The iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of mid-capitalization U. public since 2001-08-02.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $136.45
- Expected Move
- 5.9%
- Implied High
- $144.55
- Implied Low
- $128.35
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IWP) has an expected move of 5.93%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $128.35 to $144.55 from the current $136.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
IWP Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF pricing an expected move of 5.93% from $136.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for IWP derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $136.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 20.7% | 6.3% | $145.07 | $127.83 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 20.8% | 8.6% | $148.24 | $124.66 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 21.7% | 14.1% | $155.68 | $117.22 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 21.1% | 17.3% | $160.04 | $112.86 |
Frequently asked IWP expected move questions
- What is the current IWP expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IWP) has an expected move of 5.93% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $128.35 to $144.55 from the current $136.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the IWP expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is IWP expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.