What is the current IVV expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 3.81% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $739.67 to $798.31 from the current $768.99. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the IVV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is IVV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $887.43B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.00 to the broader market. This iShares Core S&P 500 exchange-traded fund is designed to replicate the financial performance of a benchmark index comprising stocks from major U. public since 2000-05-19.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $768.99
Expected Move: 3.8%
Implied High: $798.31
Implied Low: $739.67
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 3.81%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $739.67 to $798.31 from the current $768.99. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

IVV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With iShares Core S&P 500 ETF pricing an expected move of 3.81% from $768.99, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the IVV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.81%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $739.67 to $798.31. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

IVV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. IVV term-structure is in contango (slope 0.004), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 14.3%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical IVV range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing IVV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. IVV put/call volume ratio currently at 0.10 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for IVV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $768.99 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	15.8%	1.2%	$777.98	$760.00
Oct 9, 2026	9	12.9%	2.0%	$784.57	$753.41
Oct 16, 2026	16	12.9%	2.7%	$789.76	$748.22
Oct 23, 2026	23	12.8%	3.2%	$793.70	$744.28
Oct 30, 2026	30	13.3%	3.8%	$798.31	$739.67
Nov 6, 2026	37	13.7%	4.4%	$802.53	$735.45
Nov 20, 2026	51	13.7%	5.1%	$808.37	$729.61
Dec 18, 2026	79	14.2%	6.6%	$819.79	$718.19
Jan 15, 2027	107	14.6%	7.9%	$829.78	$708.20
Mar 19, 2027	170	15.6%	10.6%	$850.86	$687.12
Jun 17, 2027	260	16.5%	13.9%	$876.08	$661.90
Jan 21, 2028	478	17.9%	20.5%	$926.51	$611.47
Jun 16, 2028	625	18.6%	24.3%	$956.16	$581.82
Dec 15, 2028	807	19.2%	28.5%	$988.53	$549.45

Frequently asked IVV expected move questions

What is the current IVV expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 3.81% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $739.67 to $798.31 from the current $768.99. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the IVV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is IVV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.