What is the current IVV expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 3.97% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $720.53 to $780.09 from the current $750.31. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the IVV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is IVV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $865.83B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.00 to the broader market. This iShares Core S&P 500 exchange-traded fund is designed to replicate the financial performance of a benchmark index comprising stocks from major U. public since 2000-05-19.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $750.31
Expected Move: 4.0%
Implied High: $780.09
Implied Low: $720.53
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 3.97%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $720.53 to $780.09 from the current $750.31. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

IVV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With iShares Core S&P 500 ETF pricing an expected move of 3.97% from $750.31, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the IVV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.97%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $720.53 to $780.09. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

IVV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. IVV term-structure is in contango (slope 0.004), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 17.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical IVV range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing IVV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. IVV put/call volume ratio currently at 4.11 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for IVV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $750.31 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	14.6%	1.1%	$758.42	$742.20
Jul 10, 2026	10	12.7%	2.1%	$766.08	$734.54
Jul 17, 2026	17	13.1%	2.8%	$771.52	$729.10
Jul 24, 2026	24	13.4%	3.4%	$776.09	$724.53
Jul 31, 2026	31	13.9%	4.1%	$780.70	$719.92
Aug 7, 2026	38	14.3%	4.6%	$784.93	$715.69
Aug 21, 2026	52	14.4%	5.4%	$791.09	$709.53
Sep 18, 2026	80	15.3%	7.2%	$804.05	$696.57
Dec 18, 2026	171	16.8%	11.5%	$836.59	$664.03
Jan 15, 2027	199	17.0%	12.6%	$844.49	$656.13
Jun 17, 2027	352	18.4%	18.1%	$885.89	$614.73
Jan 21, 2028	570	19.3%	24.1%	$931.27	$569.35
Jun 16, 2028	717	19.7%	27.6%	$957.48	$543.14
Dec 15, 2028	899	20.1%	31.5%	$986.99	$513.63

Frequently asked IVV expected move questions

What is the current IVV expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 3.97% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $720.53 to $780.09 from the current $750.31. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the IVV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is IVV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.