iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $827.06B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.00 to the broader market. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-capitalization U. public since 2000-05-19.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $743.56
- Expected Move
- 4.4%
- Implied High
- $776.55
- Implied Low
- $710.57
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 4.44%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $710.57 to $776.55 from the current $743.56. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
IVV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares Core S&P 500 ETF pricing an expected move of 4.44% from $743.56, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for IVV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $743.56 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 15.2% | 2.1% | $759.21 | $727.91 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 14.4% | 2.8% | $764.53 | $722.59 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 14.9% | 3.6% | $770.13 | $716.99 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 15.4% | 4.3% | $775.28 | $711.84 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 15.6% | 4.8% | $778.96 | $708.16 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 15.6% | 5.3% | $782.91 | $704.21 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 16.0% | 6.6% | $792.99 | $694.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 16.9% | 9.9% | $817.39 | $669.73 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 18.0% | 13.9% | $846.76 | $640.36 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 18.2% | 14.9% | $854.43 | $632.69 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 19.1% | 19.9% | $891.86 | $595.26 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 19.7% | 25.6% | $933.85 | $553.27 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 763 | 20.0% | 28.9% | $958.57 | $528.55 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 20.5% | 33.0% | $988.83 | $498.29 |
Frequently asked IVV expected move questions
- What is the current IVV expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) has an expected move of 4.44% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $710.57 to $776.55 from the current $743.56. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the IVV expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is IVV expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.