What is the current IGV expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 8.85% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $95.01 to $113.45 from the current $104.23. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the IGV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is IGV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $14.49B, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 1.18 to the broader market. This iShares ETF, specializing in the expanded tech-software sector, is designed to mirror the financial performance of an underlying index. public since 2001-07-10.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $104.23
Expected Move: 8.8%
Implied High: $113.45
Implied Low: $95.01
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 8.85%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $95.01 to $113.45 from the current $104.23. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

IGV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF pricing an expected move of 8.85% from $104.23, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the IGV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 8.85%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $95.01 to $113.45. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

IGV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. IGV term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.007), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing IGV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. IGV put/call volume ratio currently at 0.65 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for IGV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $104.23 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	27.8%	3.8%	$108.24	$100.22
Aug 28, 2026	14	29.8%	5.8%	$110.31	$98.15
Sep 4, 2026	21	31.1%	7.5%	$112.01	$96.45
Sep 11, 2026	28	31.1%	8.6%	$113.21	$95.25
Sep 18, 2026	35	30.4%	9.4%	$114.04	$94.42
Sep 25, 2026	42	31.0%	10.5%	$115.19	$93.27
Oct 2, 2026	49	31.6%	11.6%	$116.30	$92.16
Oct 16, 2026	63	31.5%	13.1%	$117.87	$90.59
Nov 20, 2026	98	32.7%	16.9%	$121.89	$86.57
Dec 18, 2026	126	32.8%	19.3%	$124.32	$84.14
Jan 15, 2027	154	32.3%	21.0%	$126.10	$82.36
Feb 19, 2027	189	32.6%	23.5%	$128.68	$79.78
Mar 19, 2027	217	33.1%	25.5%	$130.83	$77.63
Jun 17, 2027	307	33.6%	30.8%	$136.35	$72.11
Jul 16, 2027	336	33.3%	31.9%	$137.53	$70.93
Sep 17, 2027	399	33.0%	34.5%	$140.19	$68.27
Jan 21, 2028	525	33.0%	39.6%	$145.48	$62.98
Dec 15, 2028	854	33.2%	50.8%	$157.16	$51.30

IGV highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$80.00	Jan 15, 2027	19	131.9K	36.7%	$1.15	$1.34

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked IGV expected move questions

What is the current IGV expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 8.85% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $95.01 to $113.45 from the current $104.23. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the IGV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is IGV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.