What is the current IGV expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 9.17% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $96.97 to $116.57 from the current $106.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the IGV expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is IGV expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $14.97B, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 1.19 to the broader market. This iShares ETF, specializing in the expanded tech-software sector, is designed to mirror the financial performance of an underlying index. public since 2001-07-10.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $106.77
Expected Move: 9.2%
Implied High: $116.57
Implied Low: $96.97
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 9.17%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $96.97 to $116.57 from the current $106.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

IGV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF pricing an expected move of 9.17% from $106.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the IGV implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.17%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $96.97 to $116.57. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

IGV expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. IGV term-structure is in contango (slope 0.009), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing IGV structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. IGV put/call volume ratio currently at 2.62 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for IGV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $106.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	35.8%	2.7%	$109.60	$103.94
Oct 9, 2026	9	32.0%	5.0%	$112.14	$101.40
Oct 16, 2026	16	31.1%	6.5%	$113.72	$99.82
Oct 23, 2026	23	31.6%	7.9%	$115.24	$98.30
Oct 30, 2026	30	32.0%	9.2%	$116.57	$96.97
Nov 6, 2026	37	32.9%	10.5%	$117.95	$95.59
Nov 20, 2026	51	32.6%	12.2%	$119.78	$93.76
Dec 18, 2026	79	32.2%	15.0%	$122.76	$90.78
Jan 15, 2027	107	32.3%	17.5%	$125.44	$88.10
Feb 19, 2027	142	32.2%	20.1%	$128.21	$85.33
Mar 19, 2027	170	32.1%	21.9%	$130.16	$83.38
May 21, 2027	233	32.5%	26.0%	$134.49	$79.05
Jun 17, 2027	260	32.7%	27.6%	$136.24	$77.30
Jul 16, 2027	289	32.8%	29.2%	$137.93	$75.61
Sep 17, 2027	352	32.5%	31.9%	$140.85	$72.69
Jan 21, 2028	478	32.7%	37.4%	$146.72	$66.82
Dec 15, 2028	807	32.9%	48.9%	$159.00	$54.54
Jan 19, 2029	842	32.8%	49.8%	$159.96	$53.58

IGV highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$80.00	Jan 15, 2027	0	130.6K	38.0%	$0.50	$0.73

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked IGV expected move questions

What is the current IGV expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 9.17% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $96.97 to $116.57 from the current $106.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the IGV expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is IGV expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.