iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $13.11B, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 1.12 to the broader market. This iShares ETF, specializing in the expanded tech-software sector, is designed to mirror the financial performance of an underlying index. public since 2001-07-17.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $90.61
- Expected Move
- 10.0%
- Implied High
- $99.71
- Implied Low
- $81.51
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 10.05%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $81.51 to $99.71 from the current $90.61. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
IGV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF pricing an expected move of 10.05% from $90.61, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the IGV implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 10.05%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $81.51 to $99.71. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
IGV expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. IGV term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.003), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing IGV structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. IGV put/call volume ratio currently at 3.06 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for IGV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $90.61 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 39.6% | 2.9% | $93.27 | $87.95 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 33.7% | 5.6% | $95.66 | $85.56 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 34.6% | 7.5% | $97.38 | $83.84 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 34.6% | 8.9% | $98.65 | $82.57 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 35.1% | 10.2% | $99.88 | $81.34 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 34.8% | 11.2% | $100.78 | $80.44 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 34.5% | 13.0% | $102.41 | $78.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 34.5% | 16.2% | $105.25 | $75.97 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 34.4% | 21.5% | $110.12 | $71.10 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 35.4% | 24.2% | $112.56 | $68.66 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 35.0% | 25.8% | $114.03 | $67.19 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 234 | 34.5% | 27.6% | $115.64 | $65.58 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 262 | 34.6% | 29.3% | $117.17 | $64.05 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 352 | 35.0% | 34.4% | $121.75 | $59.47 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 381 | 35.1% | 35.9% | $123.10 | $58.12 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 444 | 35.8% | 39.5% | $126.39 | $54.83 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 36.6% | 45.7% | $132.05 | $49.17 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 899 | 36.6% | 57.4% | $142.66 | $38.56 |
IGV highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $80.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 87.5K | 288.4K | 35.8% | $4.00 | $4.30 |
| PUT | $80.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 87.5K | 288.4K | 35.8% | $4.00 | $4.30 |
| PUT | $90.00 | Aug 21, 2026 | 40 | 109.7K | 34.5% | $4.10 | $4.30 |
| PUT | $70.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 6 | 106.9K | 37.8% | $1.75 | $2.05 |
Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked IGV expected move questions
- What is the current IGV expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has an expected move of 10.05% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $81.51 to $99.71 from the current $90.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the IGV expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is IGV expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.