iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $16.67B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.67 to the broader market. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of a specific market benchmark. public since 2007-04-11.
Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $77.22
- Expected Move
- 2.1%
- Implied High
- $78.84
- Implied Low
- $75.60
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has an expected move of 2.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $75.60 to $78.84 from the current $77.22. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
HYG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 2.09% from $77.22, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the HYG implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 2.09%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $75.60 to $78.84. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
HYG expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. HYG term-structure is in contango (slope 0.001), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 1.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical HYG range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing HYG structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. HYG put/call volume ratio currently at 5.54 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for HYG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $77.22 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 2 | 5.3% | 0.4% | $77.52 | $76.92 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 9 | 4.5% | 0.7% | $77.77 | $76.67 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16 | 6.4% | 1.3% | $78.25 | $76.19 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23 | 6.7% | 1.7% | $78.52 | $75.92 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 30 | 7.3% | 2.1% | $78.84 | $75.60 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 37 | 7.4% | 2.4% | $79.04 | $75.40 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 51 | 7.0% | 2.6% | $79.24 | $75.20 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 79 | 6.7% | 3.1% | $79.63 | $74.81 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 107 | 6.7% | 3.6% | $80.02 | $74.42 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 142 | 7.0% | 4.4% | $80.59 | $73.85 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 170 | 6.4% | 4.4% | $80.59 | $73.85 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 198 | 6.7% | 4.9% | $81.03 | $73.41 |
| May 21, 2027 | 233 | 6.6% | 5.3% | $81.29 | $73.15 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 260 | 6.7% | 5.7% | $81.59 | $72.85 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 289 | 6.8% | 6.1% | $81.89 | $72.55 |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 324 | 6.7% | 6.3% | $82.09 | $72.35 |
| Sep 17, 2027 | 352 | 7.5% | 7.4% | $82.91 | $71.53 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 443 | 414.4% | 456.5% | $429.76 | $-275.32 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 478 | 9.6% | 11.0% | $85.70 | $68.74 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 842 | 9.3% | 14.1% | $88.13 | $66.31 |
HYG highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $75.00 | Dec 17, 2027 | 0 | 4.5K | 414.4% | $2.40 | $5.50 |
Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked HYG expected move questions
- What is the current HYG expected move?
- As of Sep 30, 2026, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has an expected move of 2.09% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $75.60 to $78.84 from the current $77.22. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the HYG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is HYG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.