iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $17.42B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.65 to the broader market. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of a specific market benchmark. public since 2007-04-11.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $80.00
- Expected Move
- 0.6%
- Implied High
- $80.46
- Implied Low
- $79.54
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has an expected move of 0.57%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $79.54 to $80.46 from the current $80.00. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
HYG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 0.57% from $80.00, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the HYG implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 0.57%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $79.54 to $80.46. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
HYG expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. HYG term-structure is in contango (slope 0.025), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 1.8%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical HYG range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing HYG structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. HYG put/call volume ratio currently at 4.82 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for HYG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $80.00 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 4.9% | 0.4% | $80.29 | $79.71 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 119.2% | 19.7% | $95.78 | $64.22 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 2.0% | 0.4% | $80.35 | $79.65 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 1.0% | 0.3% | $80.21 | $79.79 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 2.1% | 0.6% | $80.49 | $79.51 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 4.6% | 1.5% | $81.18 | $78.82 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 3.1% | 1.2% | $80.94 | $79.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 3.8% | 1.8% | $81.42 | $78.58 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 108 | 5.1% | 2.8% | $82.22 | $77.78 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 4.7% | 2.9% | $82.35 | $77.65 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 4.8% | 3.3% | $82.63 | $77.37 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 5.1% | 3.8% | $83.01 | $76.99 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 234 | 2.3% | 1.8% | $81.47 | $78.53 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 262 | 6.5% | 5.5% | $84.41 | $75.59 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 290 | 8.0% | 7.1% | $85.70 | $74.30 |
| May 21, 2027 | 325 | 7.7% | 7.3% | $85.81 | $74.19 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 352 | 7.3% | 7.2% | $85.74 | $74.26 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 8.7% | 10.9% | $88.70 | $71.30 |
HYG highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $81.00 | Aug 7, 2026 | 0 | 100 | 814.9% | $0.98 | $2.21 |
| CALL | $80.00 | Jul 2, 2026 | 13 | 8.1K | 612.8% | $0.02 | $0.06 |
| PUT | $80.00 | Jul 2, 2026 | 6 | 156 | 612.8% | $0.34 | $0.45 |
Top 3 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked HYG expected move questions
- What is the current HYG expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has an expected move of 0.57% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $79.54 to $80.46 from the current $80.00. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the HYG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is HYG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.