Unlimited HFND Multi-Strategy Return Tracker ETF (HFND) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Unlimited HFND Multi-Strategy Return Tracker ETF (HFND) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $31.8M, listed on NYSE, carrying a beta of 0.53 to the broader market. The fund's portfolio will generally consist of long and short positions in 30 to 50 Underlying ETFs and futures contracts. public since 2022-10-11.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $24.10
- Expected Move
- 5.0%
- Implied High
- $25.30
- Implied Low
- $22.90
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Unlimited HFND Multi-Strategy Return Tracker ETF (HFND) has an expected move of 4.99%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.90 to $25.30 from the current $24.10. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
HFND Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Unlimited HFND Multi-Strategy Return Tracker ETF pricing an expected move of 4.99% from $24.10, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for HFND derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.10 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 17.4% | 5.3% | $25.38 | $22.82 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 22.4% | 9.3% | $26.34 | $21.86 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 18.2% | 11.8% | $26.95 | $21.25 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 19.4% | 15.9% | $27.93 | $20.27 |
Frequently asked HFND expected move questions
- What is the current HFND expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Unlimited HFND Multi-Strategy Return Tracker ETF (HFND) has an expected move of 4.99% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.90 to $25.30 from the current $24.10. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the HFND expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is HFND expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.