SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $155.84B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.16 to the broader market. The investment objective of SPDR Gold Trust (the "Trust") is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expensesThe first US traded gold ETF and the first US-listed ETF backed by a physical assetFor many investors, the costs associated with buying GLD shares in the secondary market and the payment of the Trust's ongoing expenses may be lower than the costs associated with buying, storing and insuring physical gold in a traditional allocated gold bullion account public since 2004-11-18.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $418.08
- Expected Move
- 6.7%
- Implied High
- $446.01
- Implied Low
- $390.15
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has an expected move of 6.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $390.15 to $446.01 from the current $418.08. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
GLD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With SPDR Gold Shares pricing an expected move of 6.68% from $418.08, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for GLD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $418.08 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | 3 | 17.5% | 1.6% | $424.71 | $411.45 |
| May 20, 2026 | 5 | 21.3% | 2.5% | $428.50 | $407.66 |
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 22.9% | 3.2% | $431.34 | $404.82 |
| May 27, 2026 | 12 | 21.9% | 4.0% | $434.68 | $401.48 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 22.8% | 4.5% | $436.75 | $399.41 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 23.1% | 5.5% | $441.25 | $394.91 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 23.3% | 6.5% | $445.06 | $391.10 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 23.3% | 7.1% | $447.81 | $388.35 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 23.5% | 8.0% | $451.41 | $384.75 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 46 | 23.0% | 8.2% | $452.22 | $383.94 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 23.3% | 9.7% | $458.55 | $377.61 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 23.6% | 12.2% | $469.21 | $366.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 23.6% | 13.9% | $476.05 | $360.11 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 138 | 23.7% | 14.6% | $479.01 | $357.15 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 23.8% | 15.5% | $482.71 | $353.45 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 24.2% | 17.4% | $490.88 | $345.28 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 24.0% | 18.5% | $495.45 | $340.71 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 230 | 24.1% | 19.1% | $498.06 | $338.10 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 24.0% | 19.7% | $500.29 | $335.87 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 24.2% | 22.2% | $511.02 | $325.14 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 320 | 24.4% | 22.8% | $513.60 | $322.56 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 24.4% | 25.5% | $524.60 | $311.56 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 24.6% | 32.0% | $551.69 | $284.47 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 763 | 25.2% | 36.4% | $570.41 | $265.75 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 25.3% | 40.7% | $588.28 | $247.88 |
GLD highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $418.00 | May 22, 2026 | 12.7K | 365 | 22.9% | $4.95 | $5.20 |
| CALL | $420.00 | May 22, 2026 | 5.2K | 158 | 22.6% | $4.40 | $4.55 |
| CALL | $418.00 | May 22, 2026 | 31.3K | 1.1K | 22.9% | $5.40 | $5.65 |
| PUT | $419.00 | May 22, 2026 | 4.1K | 142 | 22.7% | $5.45 | $5.70 |
| PUT | $416.00 | May 22, 2026 | 5.4K | 211 | 23.2% | $4.10 | $4.35 |
| CALL | $418.00 | May 22, 2026 | 31.3K | 1.1K | 22.9% | $5.40 | $5.65 |
| PUT | $417.00 | May 22, 2026 | 10.5K | 436 | 23.0% | $4.50 | $4.75 |
| CALL | $450.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 1.1K | 73.7K | 24.0% | $2.85 | $2.88 |
| CALL | $425.00 | Jun 18, 2026 | 236 | 39.9K | 23.2% | $9.35 | $9.60 |
Top 9 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked GLD expected move questions
- What is the current GLD expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has an expected move of 6.68% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $390.15 to $446.01 from the current $418.08. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the GLD expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is GLD expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.