iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $4.53B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.45 to the broader market. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF aims to mirror the performance of an index consisting of major Chinese companies whose shares are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. public since 2004-10-08.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $31.64
- Expected Move
- 7.3%
- Implied High
- $33.96
- Implied Low
- $29.32
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has an expected move of 7.34%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $29.32 to $33.96 from the current $31.64. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FXI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares China Large-Cap ETF pricing an expected move of 7.34% from $31.64, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the FXI implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.34%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $29.32 to $33.96. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
FXI expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FXI term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing FXI structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FXI put/call volume ratio currently at 0.92 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FXI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $31.64 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 27.6% | 2.0% | $32.29 | $30.99 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 24.9% | 4.1% | $32.94 | $30.34 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 25.3% | 5.5% | $33.37 | $29.91 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 25.6% | 6.6% | $33.72 | $29.56 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 25.6% | 7.5% | $34.00 | $29.28 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 25.5% | 8.2% | $34.24 | $29.04 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 24.9% | 9.4% | $34.61 | $28.67 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 24.8% | 11.6% | $35.31 | $27.97 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 92 | 24.7% | 12.4% | $35.56 | $27.72 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 108 | 25.2% | 13.7% | $35.98 | $27.30 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 25.7% | 16.1% | $36.73 | $26.55 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 25.5% | 17.5% | $37.16 | $26.12 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 184 | 26.1% | 18.5% | $37.50 | $25.78 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 26.9% | 19.9% | $37.92 | $25.36 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 234 | 26.2% | 21.0% | $38.28 | $25.00 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 262 | 25.3% | 21.4% | $38.42 | $24.86 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 274 | 25.4% | 22.0% | $38.60 | $24.68 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 290 | 28.5% | 25.4% | $39.68 | $23.60 |
| May 21, 2027 | 325 | 27.2% | 25.7% | $39.76 | $23.52 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 352 | 29.9% | 29.4% | $40.93 | $22.35 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 27.6% | 34.5% | $42.55 | $20.73 |
FXI highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $40.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 0 | 136.0K | 25.5% | $0.04 | $0.06 |
| PUT | $36.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 1 | 113.3K | 24.4% | $4.30 | $4.70 |
| PUT | $31.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 18.0K | 55.8K | 27.6% | $1.88 | $2.24 |
Top 3 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked FXI expected move questions
- What is the current FXI expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has an expected move of 7.34% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $29.32 to $33.96 from the current $31.64. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FXI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FXI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.