iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $4.20B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.47 to the broader market. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF aims to mirror the performance of an index consisting of major Chinese companies whose shares are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. public since 2004-10-08.
Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $34.92
- Expected Move
- 5.5%
- Implied High
- $36.83
- Implied Low
- $33.01
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Aug 14, 2026, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has an expected move of 5.48%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $33.01 to $36.83 from the current $34.92. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FXI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iShares China Large-Cap ETF pricing an expected move of 5.48% from $34.92, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the FXI implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.48%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $33.01 to $36.83. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
FXI expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. FXI term-structure is in contango (slope 0.006), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 7.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical FXI range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing FXI structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. FXI put/call volume ratio currently at 0.67 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FXI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $34.92 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 7 | 18.3% | 2.5% | $35.80 | $34.04 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 14 | 18.8% | 3.7% | $36.21 | $33.63 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21 | 19.1% | 4.6% | $36.52 | $33.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 28 | 18.9% | 5.2% | $36.75 | $33.09 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 35 | 19.5% | 6.0% | $37.03 | $32.81 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 42 | 20.1% | 6.8% | $37.30 | $32.54 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 47 | 20.0% | 7.2% | $37.43 | $32.41 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 49 | 20.3% | 7.4% | $37.52 | $32.32 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.6% | $37.92 | $31.92 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 98 | 21.3% | 11.0% | $38.77 | $31.07 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 126 | 22.6% | 13.3% | $39.56 | $30.28 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 139 | 22.3% | 13.8% | $39.73 | $30.11 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 154 | 22.7% | 14.7% | $40.07 | $29.77 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 189 | 22.7% | 16.3% | $40.62 | $29.22 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 217 | 22.8% | 17.6% | $41.06 | $28.78 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 229 | 23.3% | 18.5% | $41.36 | $28.48 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 245 | 23.2% | 19.0% | $41.56 | $28.28 |
| May 21, 2027 | 280 | 24.9% | 21.8% | $42.54 | $27.30 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 307 | 22.5% | 20.6% | $42.13 | $27.71 |
| Jun 30, 2027 | 320 | 21.3% | 19.9% | $41.88 | $27.96 |
| Jul 16, 2027 | 336 | 21.8% | 20.9% | $42.22 | $27.62 |
| Aug 20, 2027 | 371 | 24.8% | 25.0% | $43.65 | $26.19 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 525 | 24.8% | 29.7% | $45.31 | $24.53 |
FXI highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $40.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 9 | 132.5K | 23.1% | $0.03 | $0.05 |
| PUT | $36.00 | Sep 18, 2026 | 93 | 120.9K | 19.2% | $1.41 | $1.49 |
Top 2 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked FXI expected move questions
- What is the current FXI expected move?
- As of Aug 14, 2026, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has an expected move of 5.48% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.01 to $36.83 from the current $34.92. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FXI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FXI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.