First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $16.9M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.53 to the broader market. The First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF is an exchange-traded fund. public since 2016-10-10.
Snapshot as of May 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $22.25
- Expected Move
- 11.1%
- Implied High
- $24.71
- Implied Low
- $19.79
- Front DTE
- 35 days
As of May 14, 2026, First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG) has an expected move of 11.07%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $19.79 to $24.71 from the current $22.25. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
FTXG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF pricing an expected move of 11.07% from $22.25, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for FTXG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $22.25 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 1 | 24.7% | 1.3% | $22.54 | $21.96 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 35 | 38.6% | 12.0% | $24.91 | $19.59 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 64 | 36.4% | 15.2% | $25.64 | $18.86 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 99 | 44.0% | 22.9% | $27.35 | $17.15 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 190 | 38.3% | 27.6% | $28.40 | $16.10 |
Frequently asked FTXG expected move questions
- What is the current FTXG expected move?
- As of May 14, 2026, First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG) has an expected move of 11.07% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $19.79 to $24.71 from the current $22.25. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the FTXG expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is FTXG expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.