What is the FID 30-day expected price range?

As of May 28, 2026, with FID at $22.23 and ATM IV at 40.7%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.59, or about $19.64 to $24.82. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does FID risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FID price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does FID ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF (FID) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF (FID) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Income industry, with a market capitalization near $160.8M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.76 to the broader market. The First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF (the "Fund"), formerly the International Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund, seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield (before the Fund's fees and expenses) of an index called the S&P International Dividend Aristocrats Index (the "Index"). public since 2013-08-23.

Snapshot as of May 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $22.23
ATM IV: 40.7%
IV Rank: 9.9%
IV Percentile: 71.4%
HV 20-Day: 13.5%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.033

As of May 28, 2026, First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF (FID) at $22.23 has an ATM IV of 40.7%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.59. IV rank is 9.9% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 71.4%. The 25-delta skew is +0.033: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How FID probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 40.7% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the FID probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 40.7% and spot at $22.23, the 1σ band is approximately ±14.0% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 13.5% runs 27.2 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

FID risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the FID distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With FID IV rank at 9.9%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked FID probability analysis questions

What is the FID 30-day expected price range?: As of May 28, 2026, with FID at $22.23 and ATM IV at 40.7%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.59, or about $19.64 to $24.82. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does FID risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future FID price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does FID ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.