What is the ETHD 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with ETHD at $58.88 and ATM IV at 101.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$17.18, or about $41.70 to $76.06. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does ETHD risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future ETHD price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does ETHD ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

ProShares - UltraShort Ether ETF (ETHD) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

ProShares - UltraShort Ether ETF (ETHD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $70.2M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -4.13 to the broader market. This ETF's objective is to achieve daily investment performance, before accounting for its fees and expenses, that is precisely two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily fluctuations of the Bloomberg Ethereum Index. public since 2024-06-07.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $58.88
ATM IV: 101.8%
IV Rank: 12.7%
IV Percentile: 9.9%
HV 20-Day: 108.2%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.236

As of Jul 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Ether ETF (ETHD) at $58.88 has an ATM IV of 101.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$17.18. IV rank is 12.7% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 9.9%. The 25-delta skew is -0.236: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How ETHD probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on ProShares - UltraShort Ether ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 101.8% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the ETHD probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where ProShares - UltraShort Ether ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 101.8% and spot at $58.88, the 1σ band is approximately ±35.1% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 108.2% runs 6.4 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

ETHD risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. ETHD's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.236) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the ETHD distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With ETHD IV rank at 12.7%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked ETHD probability analysis questions

What is the ETHD 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with ETHD at $58.88 and ATM IV at 101.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$17.18, or about $41.70 to $76.06. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does ETHD risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future ETHD price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does ETHD ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.