Global X - Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBD) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $254.9M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.92 to the broader market. The Global X Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBD) seeks a high level of total return consisting of both income and capital appreciation. public since 2020-06-03.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $23.62
- Expected Move
- 9.6%
- Implied High
- $25.89
- Implied Low
- $21.35
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBD) has an expected move of 9.60%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $21.35 to $25.89 from the current $23.62. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
EMBD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - Emerging Markets Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 9.60% from $23.62, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for EMBD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $23.62 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 33.5% | 10.2% | $26.04 | $21.20 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 30.8% | 12.8% | $26.64 | $20.60 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 27.3% | 17.7% | $27.81 | $19.43 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 27.3% | 22.4% | $28.90 | $18.34 |
Frequently asked EMBD expected move questions
- What is the current EMBD expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBD) has an expected move of 9.60% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.35 to $25.89 from the current $23.62. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the EMBD expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is EMBD expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.