What is the current EFA expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) has an expected move of 4.38% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $99.21 to $108.29 from the current $103.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the EFA expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is EFA expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $77.12B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.87 to the broader market. This exchange-traded fund aims to mirror the financial returns of a specific benchmark. public since 2001-08-27.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $103.75
Expected Move: 4.4%
Implied High: $108.29
Implied Low: $99.21
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) has an expected move of 4.38%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $99.21 to $108.29 from the current $103.75. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

EFA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With iShares MSCI EAFE ETF pricing an expected move of 4.38% from $103.75, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the EFA implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 4.38%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $99.21 to $108.29. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

EFA expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. EFA term-structure is in contango (slope 0.005), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing EFA structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. EFA put/call volume ratio currently at 1.52 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for EFA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $103.75 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	16.5%	1.2%	$105.02	$102.48
Jul 10, 2026	10	14.3%	2.4%	$106.21	$101.29
Jul 17, 2026	17	15.1%	3.3%	$107.13	$100.37
Jul 24, 2026	24	15.1%	3.9%	$107.77	$99.73
Jul 31, 2026	31	15.3%	4.5%	$108.38	$99.12
Aug 7, 2026	38	15.8%	5.1%	$109.04	$98.46
Aug 21, 2026	52	15.3%	5.8%	$109.74	$97.76
Aug 31, 2026	62	15.8%	6.5%	$110.51	$96.99
Sep 18, 2026	80	16.3%	7.6%	$111.67	$95.83
Sep 30, 2026	92	16.3%	8.2%	$112.24	$95.26
Dec 18, 2026	171	17.0%	11.6%	$115.82	$91.68
Dec 31, 2026	184	17.8%	12.6%	$116.86	$90.64
Jan 15, 2027	199	17.2%	12.7%	$116.93	$90.57
Mar 19, 2027	262	18.9%	16.0%	$120.36	$87.14
Mar 31, 2027	274	18.9%	16.4%	$120.74	$86.76
Jun 17, 2027	352	18.5%	18.2%	$122.60	$84.90
Jan 21, 2028	570	18.5%	23.1%	$127.74	$79.76

EFA highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$109.00	Aug 21, 2026	12.5K	585	14.0%	$0.54	$0.73

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked EFA expected move questions

What is the current EFA expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) has an expected move of 4.38% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $99.21 to $108.29 from the current $103.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the EFA expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is EFA expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.