Global X - DAX Germany ETF (DAX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - DAX Germany ETF (DAX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $312.1M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.09 to the broader market. The Global X DAX Germany ETF (DAX) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the DAX Index. public since 2014-10-23.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $43.91
- Expected Move
- 7.3%
- Implied High
- $47.11
- Implied Low
- $40.71
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - DAX Germany ETF (DAX) has an expected move of 7.28%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $40.71 to $47.11 from the current $43.91. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
DAX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - DAX Germany ETF pricing an expected move of 7.28% from $43.91, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for DAX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $43.91 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 25.4% | 7.8% | $47.31 | $40.51 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 24.2% | 10.1% | $48.32 | $39.50 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 21.7% | 14.1% | $50.10 | $37.72 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 22.2% | 18.2% | $51.90 | $35.92 |
Frequently asked DAX expected move questions
- What is the current DAX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - DAX Germany ETF (DAX) has an expected move of 7.28% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $40.71 to $47.11 from the current $43.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the DAX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is DAX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.