CONL Butterfly Strategy
CONL (GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF), in the Financial Services sector, (Asset Management industry), listed on NASDAQ.
The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 2 times (200%) the daily percentage change of the common stock of Coinbase Global Inc, (NASDAQ: COIN) There is no guarantee that the Fund will meet its stated objective. The fund should not be expected to provide 2 times the cumulative return of COIN for periods greater than a day.
CONL (GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Asset Management, with a market capitalization of approximately $322.7M, a beta of 7.97 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 5.02-72.345, average daily share volume of 20.8M, a public-listing history dating back to 2022. These structural characteristics shape how CONL etf options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 7.97 indicates CONL has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position. CONL pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a butterfly on CONL?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current CONL snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $8.18, ATM IV 137.40%, IV rank 49.38%, expected move 39.39%. The butterfly on CONL below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on CONL specifically: CONL IV at 137.40% is mid-range versus its 1-year history, so strategy selection should anchor more to the directional thesis than to the IV regime, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 39.39% (roughly $3.22 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated CONL expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on CONL should anchor to the underlying notional of $8.18 per share and to the trader's directional view on CONL etf.
CONL butterfly setup
The CONL butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With CONL near $8.18, the first option leg uses a $8.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed CONL chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 CONL shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $8.00 | $1.45 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $8.00 | $1.45 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $9.00 | $1.08 |
CONL butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- +$37.50
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $37.50
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$62.50
- Breakeven(s)
- $8.38
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 0.600
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
CONL butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on CONL. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -99.9% | +$37.50 |
| $1.82 | -77.8% | +$37.50 |
| $3.63 | -55.7% | +$37.50 |
| $5.43 | -33.6% | +$37.50 |
| $7.24 | -11.5% | +$37.50 |
| $9.05 | +10.6% | -$62.50 |
| $10.86 | +32.7% | -$62.50 |
| $12.66 | +54.8% | -$62.50 |
| $14.47 | +76.9% | -$62.50 |
| $16.28 | +99.0% | -$62.50 |
When traders use butterfly on CONL
Butterflies on CONL are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect CONL to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
CONL thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for CONL extends from approximately $4.96 on the downside to $11.40 on the upside. A CONL long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if CONL settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current CONL IV rank near 49.38% is mid-range against its 1-year distribution, so the IV signal is neutral; the butterfly thesis on CONL should anchor more to the directional view and the expected-move geometry. As a Financial Services name, CONL options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to CONL-specific events.
CONL butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. CONL positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move CONL alongside the broader basket even when CONL-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current CONL chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on CONL?
- A butterfly on CONL is the butterfly strategy applied to CONL (etf). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With CONL etf trading near $8.18, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed CONL chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are CONL butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the CONL butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 137.40%), the computed maximum profit is $37.50 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$62.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a CONL butterfly?
- The breakeven for the CONL butterfly priced on this page is roughly $8.38 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current CONL market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 39.39%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on CONL?
- Butterflies on CONL are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect CONL to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current CONL implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- CONL ATM IV is at 137.40% with IV rank near 49.38%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.