Is CIFU options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Jul 14, 2026, T-REX 2X Long CIFR Daily Target ETF (CIFU) ATM IV is 256.2% against 20-day realized volatility of 255.2%. IV rank is 72.4%. CIFU options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 1.0 vol points.

What is the CIFU variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. CIFU is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does CIFU IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. CIFU's current rank of 72.4% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

T-REX 2X Long CIFR Daily Target ETF (CIFU) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

T-REX 2X Long CIFR Daily Target ETF (CIFU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $12.2M, listed on CBOE, employing roughly 5,233 people, carrying a beta of 8.77 to the broader market. The fund, under normal circumstances, invests at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in financial instruments that are designed to provide, in the aggregate, 200% exposure to the price performance of CIFR on a daily basis. Led by Kurt MacAlpine, public since 2025-11-21.

Snapshot as of Jul 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $20.45
ATM IV: 256.2%
HV 20-Day: 255.2%
HV 60-Day: 223.0%
IV Rank: 72.4%
IV Percentile: 99.2%

As of Jul 14, 2026, T-REX 2X Long CIFR Daily Target ETF (CIFU) ATM implied volatility is 256.2%. 20-day realized volatility is 255.2%, producing an IV-HV spread of +1.0 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 72.4%.

How CIFU iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on T-REX 2X Long CIFR Daily Target ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 256.2% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the CIFU IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 256.2%, 72.4% IV rank, against 255.2% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 1.0 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

CIFU IV/HV regimes and trade selection

CIFU sits in the top quartile of its 1-year IV range. High-IV-rank regimes statistically favor premium-selling - the elevated implied is more likely to mean-revert than to expand further. Iron condors, covered calls, and cash-secured puts collect more premium per unit of notional risk; size wings to the implied move and exit on first sign of HV catching up.

Using CIFU vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.047) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

CIFU IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. CIFU's current 72.4% IV rank places the ticker in the expansion or stress phase of that cycle. Premium-selling carries the typical structural tailwind here, but the mean-reverting compression that completes the cycle has historically arrived sharply rather than gradually. The ratio of HV-20 (255.2%) to HV-60 (223.0%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for CIFU over the last ~26 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Jul 14, 2026	256.2%	255.2%	223.0%	72.4%
Jul 13, 2026	243.7%	257.0%	222.9%	61.2%
Jul 10, 2026	204.7%	249.6%	218.3%	26.6%
Jul 9, 2026	220.0%	249.5%	225.9%	40.2%
Jul 8, 2026	228.1%	244.1%	225.7%	-
Jul 7, 2026	230.5%	248.2%	229.3%	-
Jul 6, 2026	231.3%	247.3%	234.6%	-
Jul 2, 2026	214.5%	238.1%	233.8%	-
Jun 30, 2026	207.3%	179.1%	213.9%	-
Jun 29, 2026	208.2%	189.6%	213.7%	-
Jun 25, 2026	204.8%	191.5%	215.1%	-
Jun 24, 2026	203.5%	191.4%	214.9%	-
Jun 23, 2026	203.4%	190.4%	213.4%	-
Jun 22, 2026	204.0%	189.6%	213.0%	-
Jun 18, 2026	193.0%	186.4%	212.6%	-

Frequently asked CIFU iv/hv history questions

Is CIFU options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Jul 14, 2026, T-REX 2X Long CIFR Daily Target ETF (CIFU) ATM IV is 256.2% against 20-day realized volatility of 255.2%. IV rank is 72.4%. CIFU options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 1.0 vol points.
What is the CIFU variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. CIFU is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does CIFU IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. CIFU's current rank of 72.4% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.