Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $69.81B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.39 to the broader market. Seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg U. public since 2007-04-10.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $77.78
- Expected Move
- 0.9%
- Implied High
- $78.52
- Implied Low
- $77.04
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) has an expected move of 0.95%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $77.04 to $78.52 from the current $77.78. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BSV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 0.95% from $77.78, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BSV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $77.78 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 3.3% | 1.0% | $78.56 | $77.00 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 3.2% | 1.3% | $78.81 | $76.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 3.2% | 1.9% | $79.24 | $76.32 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 3.4% | 2.6% | $79.82 | $75.74 |
Frequently asked BSV expected move questions
- What is the current BSV expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) has an expected move of 0.95% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $77.04 to $78.52 from the current $77.78. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BSV expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BSV expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.