Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $52.02B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.03 to the broader market. Seeks to track the investment return of the Bloomberg U. public since 2007-04-10.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $76.06
- Expected Move
- 1.4%
- Implied High
- $77.15
- Implied Low
- $74.97
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) has an expected move of 1.43%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $74.97 to $77.15 from the current $76.06. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BIV Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 1.43% from $76.06, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BIV derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $76.06 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 5.0% | 1.5% | $77.22 | $74.90 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 5.0% | 2.1% | $77.64 | $74.48 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 5.5% | 3.6% | $78.78 | $73.34 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 5.7% | 4.7% | $79.61 | $72.51 |
Frequently asked BIV expected move questions
- What is the current BIV expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) has an expected move of 1.43% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $74.97 to $77.15 from the current $76.06. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BIV expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BIV expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.