Volatility Shares Trust - 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Volatility Shares Trust - 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $1.25B, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 3.21 to the broader market. The 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Ticker: BITX) is a leveraged Bitcoin-linked ETF that seeks to provide daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the return of Bitcoin for a single day, not for any other period. public since 2023-06-27.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $19.51
- Expected Move
- 21.2%
- Implied High
- $23.65
- Implied Low
- $15.37
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Volatility Shares Trust - 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) has an expected move of 21.21%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $15.37 to $23.65 from the current $19.51. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BITX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Volatility Shares Trust - 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF pricing an expected move of 21.21% from $19.51, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BITX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $19.51 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 63.5% | 8.8% | $21.23 | $17.79 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 67.3% | 13.2% | $22.08 | $16.94 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 71.4% | 17.1% | $22.85 | $16.17 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 73.9% | 20.5% | $23.50 | $15.52 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 74.1% | 22.6% | $23.92 | $15.10 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 76.5% | 26.0% | $24.57 | $14.45 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 78.8% | 32.7% | $25.90 | $13.12 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 81.7% | 48.0% | $28.88 | $10.14 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 89.6% | 69.1% | $32.99 | $6.03 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 87.0% | 71.3% | $33.42 | $5.60 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 97.0% | 126.0% | $44.10 | $-5.08 |
Frequently asked BITX expected move questions
- What is the current BITX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Volatility Shares Trust - 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) has an expected move of 21.21% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $15.37 to $23.65 from the current $19.51. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BITX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BITX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.