Global X - Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITS) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITS) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $32.4M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.74 to the broader market. The Global X Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITS) seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation. public since 2021-11-16.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $69.49
- Expected Move
- 13.1%
- Implied High
- $78.57
- Implied Low
- $60.41
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITS) has an expected move of 13.07%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $60.41 to $78.57 from the current $69.49. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BITS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF pricing an expected move of 13.07% from $69.49, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BITS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $69.49 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 45.6% | 13.9% | $79.16 | $59.82 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 51.4% | 21.4% | $84.33 | $54.65 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 55.8% | 36.2% | $94.68 | $44.30 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 66.4% | 54.4% | $107.29 | $31.69 |
Frequently asked BITS expected move questions
- What is the current BITS expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITS) has an expected move of 13.07% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $60.41 to $78.57 from the current $69.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BITS expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BITS expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.