ProShares - Bitcoin ETF (BITO) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - Bitcoin ETF (BITO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Cryptocurrency industry, with a market capitalization near $1.86B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.74 to the broader market. BITO is the first ETF to target the performance of bitcoin. public since 2021-10-20.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $10.80
- Expected Move
- 10.0%
- Implied High
- $11.88
- Implied Low
- $9.72
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Bitcoin ETF (BITO) has an expected move of 10.00%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $9.72 to $11.88 from the current $10.80. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BITO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - Bitcoin ETF pricing an expected move of 10.00% from $10.80, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BITO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $10.80 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 31.9% | 4.4% | $11.28 | $10.32 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 32.9% | 6.4% | $11.50 | $10.10 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 35.3% | 8.5% | $11.71 | $9.89 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 33.9% | 9.4% | $11.81 | $9.79 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 36.4% | 11.1% | $12.00 | $9.60 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 36.7% | 12.4% | $12.14 | $9.46 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 46 | 39.4% | 14.0% | $12.31 | $9.29 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 39.9% | 16.6% | $12.59 | $9.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 42.9% | 25.2% | $13.52 | $8.08 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 138 | 41.6% | 25.6% | $13.56 | $8.04 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 46.6% | 35.9% | $14.68 | $6.92 |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 230 | 46.6% | 37.0% | $14.80 | $6.80 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 44.0% | 36.0% | $14.69 | $6.91 |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 320 | 51.2% | 47.9% | $15.98 | $5.62 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 56.5% | 73.4% | $18.73 | $2.87 |
Frequently asked BITO expected move questions
- What is the current BITO expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Bitcoin ETF (BITO) has an expected move of 10.00% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $9.72 to $11.88 from the current $10.80. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BITO expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BITO expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.