Roundhill Investments - Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Roundhill Investments - Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $48.1M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.12 to the broader market. Roundhill believes that an improving regulatory environment results in a compelling investment thesis for sports betting and iGaming companies. public since 2020-06-04.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $18.28
- Expected Move
- 11.0%
- Implied High
- $20.30
- Implied Low
- $16.26
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) has an expected move of 11.04%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $16.26 to $20.30 from the current $18.28. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
BETZ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Roundhill Investments - Sports Betting & iGaming ETF pricing an expected move of 11.04% from $18.28, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for BETZ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $18.28 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 38.5% | 11.8% | $20.43 | $16.13 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 33.5% | 13.9% | $20.82 | $15.74 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 29.4% | 19.1% | $21.77 | $14.79 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 28.3% | 23.2% | $22.52 | $14.04 |
Frequently asked BETZ expected move questions
- What is the current BETZ expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) has an expected move of 11.04% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $16.26 to $20.30 from the current $18.28. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the BETZ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is BETZ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.