Avantis All Equity Markets ETF 9 (AVGE) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Avantis All Equity Markets ETF 9 (AVGE) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $928.3M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.99 to the broader market. This strategy is designed to provide exposure to a broadly diversified set of companies, sectors and countries while emphasizing securities with higher expected returns. public since 2022-09-29.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $98.02
- Expected Move
- 6.9%
- Implied High
- $104.79
- Implied Low
- $91.25
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Avantis All Equity Markets ETF 9 (AVGE) has an expected move of 6.91%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $91.25 to $104.79 from the current $98.02. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
AVGE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Avantis All Equity Markets ETF 9 pricing an expected move of 6.91% from $98.02, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for AVGE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $98.02 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 24.1% | 7.4% | $105.23 | $90.81 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 20.2% | 8.4% | $106.25 | $89.79 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 14.2% | 7.4% | $105.23 | $90.81 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 14.8% | 10.6% | $108.46 | $87.58 |
Frequently asked AVGE expected move questions
- What is the current AVGE expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Avantis All Equity Markets ETF 9 (AVGE) has an expected move of 6.91% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $91.25 to $104.79 from the current $98.02. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the AVGE expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is AVGE expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.