Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $2.66B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.73 to the broader market. The Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (the “Fund”) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before fees and expenses, of the CSI 300 Index (the “Underlying Index”). public since 2013-11-06.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $35.48
- Expected Move
- 6.1%
- Implied High
- $37.63
- Implied Low
- $33.33
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 6.06%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $33.33 to $37.63 from the current $35.48. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
ASHR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF pricing an expected move of 6.06% from $35.48, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for ASHR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $35.48 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 21.1% | 2.9% | $36.52 | $34.44 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 20.8% | 4.1% | $36.93 | $34.03 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 21.1% | 5.1% | $37.28 | $33.68 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 21.3% | 5.9% | $37.57 | $33.39 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 20.9% | 6.4% | $37.74 | $33.22 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 19.8% | 6.7% | $37.86 | $33.10 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 21.3% | 8.8% | $38.62 | $32.34 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 22.0% | 14.3% | $40.55 | $30.41 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 23.1% | 17.8% | $41.80 | $29.16 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 23.4% | 19.2% | $42.28 | $28.68 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 23.1% | 30.0% | $46.13 | $24.83 |
Frequently asked ASHR expected move questions
- What is the current ASHR expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 6.06% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.33 to $37.63 from the current $35.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the ASHR expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is ASHR expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.