Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $2.58B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.68 to the broader market. The fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in securities of issuers that comprise the underlying index. public since 2013-11-06.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $36.66
- Expected Move
- 7.2%
- Implied High
- $39.30
- Implied Low
- $34.02
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 7.21%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $34.02 to $39.30 from the current $36.66. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
ASHR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF pricing an expected move of 7.21% from $36.66, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the ASHR implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.21%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $34.02 to $39.30. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
ASHR expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ASHR term-structure is in contango (slope 0.003), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing ASHR structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ASHR put/call volume ratio currently at 0.79 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for ASHR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $36.66 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 27.9% | 2.1% | $37.42 | $35.90 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 24.7% | 4.1% | $38.16 | $35.16 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 24.4% | 5.3% | $38.59 | $34.73 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 24.9% | 6.4% | $39.00 | $34.32 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 25.2% | 7.3% | $39.35 | $33.97 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 25.5% | 8.2% | $39.68 | $33.64 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 25.5% | 9.6% | $40.19 | $33.13 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 108 | 25.8% | 14.0% | $41.80 | $31.52 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 25.9% | 17.7% | $43.16 | $30.16 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 26.0% | 19.2% | $43.70 | $29.62 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 23.4% | 29.2% | $47.38 | $25.94 |
Frequently asked ASHR expected move questions
- What is the current ASHR expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 7.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $34.02 to $39.30 from the current $36.66. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the ASHR expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is ASHR expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.