What is the current ASHR expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 5.75% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $32.73 to $36.73 from the current $34.73. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the ASHR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is ASHR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $1.60B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.64 to the broader market. The fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in securities of issuers that comprise the underlying index. public since 2013-11-06.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $34.73
Expected Move: 5.7%
Implied High: $36.73
Implied Low: $32.73
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 5.75%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $32.73 to $36.73 from the current $34.73. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

ASHR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF pricing an expected move of 5.75% from $34.73, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the ASHR implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.75%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $32.73 to $36.73. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

ASHR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ASHR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.014), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 17.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical ASHR range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing ASHR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ASHR put/call volume ratio currently at 0.20 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for ASHR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $34.73 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	19.6%	2.7%	$35.67	$33.79
Aug 28, 2026	14	20.3%	4.0%	$36.11	$33.35
Sep 4, 2026	21	20.3%	4.9%	$36.42	$33.04
Sep 11, 2026	28	20.5%	5.7%	$36.70	$32.76
Sep 18, 2026	35	19.1%	5.9%	$36.78	$32.68
Sep 25, 2026	42	21.1%	7.2%	$37.22	$32.24
Oct 2, 2026	49	21.4%	7.8%	$37.45	$32.01
Oct 16, 2026	63	21.4%	8.9%	$37.82	$31.64
Dec 18, 2026	126	24.3%	14.3%	$39.69	$29.77
Jan 15, 2027	154	24.0%	15.6%	$40.14	$29.32
Jan 21, 2028	525	24.8%	29.7%	$45.06	$24.40

Frequently asked ASHR expected move questions

What is the current ASHR expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has an expected move of 5.75% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $32.73 to $36.73 from the current $34.73. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the ASHR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is ASHR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.