Global X - MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $875.5M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.49 to the broader market. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI All Argentina 25/50 Index. public since 2011-03-03.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $86.69
- Expected Move
- 9.1%
- Implied High
- $94.54
- Implied Low
- $78.84
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) has an expected move of 9.06%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $78.84 to $94.54 from the current $86.69. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
ARGT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - MSCI Argentina ETF pricing an expected move of 9.06% from $86.69, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for ARGT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $86.69 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 31.6% | 9.6% | $95.05 | $78.33 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 32.6% | 13.5% | $98.43 | $74.95 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 32.7% | 21.2% | $105.10 | $68.28 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 33.8% | 26.1% | $109.28 | $64.10 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 33.6% | 27.5% | $110.55 | $62.83 |
Frequently asked ARGT expected move questions
- What is the current ARGT expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) has an expected move of 9.06% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $78.84 to $94.54 from the current $86.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the ARGT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is ARGT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.