What is the current AGQ expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 23.11% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $61.06 to $97.76 from the current $79.41. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the AGQ expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is AGQ expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $1.43B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.97 to the broader market. ProShares Ultra Silver aims to deliver daily returns that mirror double (2x) the daily movements of the Bloomberg Silver Subindex. public since 2008-12-04.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $79.41
Expected Move: 23.1%
Implied High: $97.76
Implied Low: $61.06
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 23.11%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $61.06 to $97.76 from the current $79.41. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

AGQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - Ultra Silver pricing an expected move of 23.11% from $79.41, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the AGQ implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 23.11%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $61.06 to $97.76. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

AGQ expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. AGQ term-structure is in contango (slope 0.033), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 20.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical AGQ range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing AGQ structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. AGQ put/call volume ratio currently at 0.42 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for AGQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $79.41 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	70.0%	9.7%	$87.11	$71.71
Aug 28, 2026	14	74.8%	14.6%	$91.04	$67.78
Sep 4, 2026	21	82.5%	19.8%	$95.12	$63.70
Sep 11, 2026	28	79.5%	22.0%	$96.90	$61.92
Sep 18, 2026	35	82.8%	25.6%	$99.77	$59.05
Sep 25, 2026	42	81.9%	27.8%	$101.47	$57.35
Oct 2, 2026	49	85.0%	31.1%	$104.14	$54.68
Dec 18, 2026	126	88.1%	51.8%	$120.51	$38.31
Jan 15, 2027	154	87.1%	56.6%	$124.34	$34.48
Mar 19, 2027	217	87.4%	67.4%	$132.92	$25.90
Jun 17, 2027	307	86.9%	79.7%	$142.70	$16.12
Jan 21, 2028	525	86.9%	104.2%	$162.17	$-3.35
Jun 16, 2028	672	87.9%	119.3%	$174.12	$-15.30
Dec 15, 2028	854	88.4%	135.2%	$186.79	$-27.97

Frequently asked AGQ expected move questions

What is the current AGQ expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 23.11% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $61.06 to $97.76 from the current $79.41. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the AGQ expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is AGQ expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.