What is the current AGQ expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 21.39% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $44.09 to $68.07 from the current $56.08. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the AGQ expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is AGQ expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $994.5M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.77 to the broader market. ProShares Ultra Silver aims to deliver daily returns that mirror double (2x) the daily movements of the Bloomberg Silver Subindex. public since 2008-12-04.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $56.08
Expected Move: 21.4%
Implied High: $68.07
Implied Low: $44.09
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 21.39%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $44.09 to $68.07 from the current $56.08. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

AGQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - Ultra Silver pricing an expected move of 21.39% from $56.08, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the AGQ implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 21.39%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $44.09 to $68.07. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

AGQ expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. AGQ term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.007), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 11.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical AGQ range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing AGQ structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. AGQ put/call volume ratio currently at 0.23 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for AGQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $56.08 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	91.6%	6.8%	$59.88	$52.28
Oct 23, 2026	9	75.4%	11.8%	$62.72	$49.44
Oct 30, 2026	16	74.8%	15.7%	$64.86	$47.30
Nov 6, 2026	23	76.1%	19.1%	$66.79	$45.37
Nov 13, 2026	30	74.6%	21.4%	$68.07	$44.09
Nov 20, 2026	37	73.9%	23.5%	$69.27	$42.89
Nov 27, 2026	44	71.5%	24.8%	$70.00	$42.16
Dec 18, 2026	65	71.9%	30.3%	$73.10	$39.06
Jan 15, 2027	93	69.7%	35.2%	$75.81	$36.35
Mar 19, 2027	156	69.3%	45.3%	$81.49	$30.67
Jun 17, 2027	246	71.2%	58.5%	$88.86	$23.30
Jan 21, 2028	464	73.4%	82.8%	$102.49	$9.67
Jun 16, 2028	611	73.8%	95.5%	$109.63	$2.53
Dec 15, 2028	793	75.2%	110.8%	$118.24	$-6.08
Jan 19, 2029	828	75.0%	113.0%	$119.43	$-7.27

Frequently asked AGQ expected move questions

What is the current AGQ expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 21.39% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $44.09 to $68.07 from the current $56.08. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the AGQ expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is AGQ expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.