What is the current AGQ expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 27.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $49.89 to $87.21 from the current $68.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the AGQ expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is AGQ expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $1.20B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.06 to the broader market. ProShares Ultra Silver aims to deliver daily returns that mirror double (2x) the daily movements of the Bloomberg Silver Subindex. public since 2008-12-04.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $68.55
Expected Move: 27.2%
Implied High: $87.21
Implied Low: $49.89
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 27.21%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $49.89 to $87.21 from the current $68.55. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

AGQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - Ultra Silver pricing an expected move of 27.21% from $68.55, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the AGQ implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 27.21%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $49.89 to $87.21. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

AGQ expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. AGQ term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.041), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 28.9%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical AGQ range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing AGQ structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. AGQ put/call volume ratio currently at 0.31 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for AGQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $68.55 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	107.9%	8.0%	$74.03	$63.07
Jul 10, 2026	10	98.0%	16.2%	$79.67	$57.43
Jul 17, 2026	17	92.1%	19.9%	$82.18	$54.92
Jul 24, 2026	24	97.4%	25.0%	$85.67	$51.43
Jul 31, 2026	31	94.6%	27.6%	$87.45	$49.65
Aug 7, 2026	38	90.5%	29.2%	$88.57	$48.53
Aug 21, 2026	52	90.4%	34.1%	$91.94	$45.16
Sep 18, 2026	80	96.1%	45.0%	$99.39	$37.71
Dec 18, 2026	171	91.7%	62.8%	$111.58	$25.52
Jan 15, 2027	199	90.7%	67.0%	$114.46	$22.64
Jun 17, 2027	352	86.6%	85.0%	$126.85	$10.25
Jan 21, 2028	570	83.9%	104.8%	$140.42	$-3.32
Jun 16, 2028	717	86.7%	121.5%	$151.85	$-14.75
Dec 15, 2028	899	86.3%	135.4%	$161.39	$-24.29

Frequently asked AGQ expected move questions

What is the current AGQ expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - Ultra Silver (AGQ) has an expected move of 27.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $49.89 to $87.21 from the current $68.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the AGQ expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is AGQ expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.